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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 25, 2026: PBE moves “64° or above” up to 32% from 20%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:02 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 24. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 24 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

20%32%

64° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:02 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+12 pts
Market at capture6%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 25, 2026?

64° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication
Kalshi6%+3 pts since publication
Gap+26

RESEARCH PBE Oct 24 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “64° or above” from 20% to 32% (+12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 24 17:00Z → Oct 24 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 3% to 6%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 24 17:02Z (data cutoff Oct 24 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 24 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 24 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “64° or above” from 20% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 4°F to 5°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 56°F to 58°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 61°F to 62°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time19h13h—
National Blend spread4°F5°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high56°F58°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high61°F62°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 24 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“64° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 24 14:00ZOct 24 18:30ZOct 24 23:00Z20%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Oct 24 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Oct 24 17:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 24 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 24 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 24 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Oct 24 14:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 24 14:04ZKalshi mid7
Oct 24 14:10ZKalshi mid5
Oct 24 14:12ZKalshi mid4
Oct 24 14:14ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 14:17ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 14:22ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 15:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 15:38ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 16:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 17:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Oct 24 17:02ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 18:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 18:32ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 19:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 20:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 24 20:34ZKalshi mid4
Oct 24 20:39ZKalshi mid4
Oct 24 20:42ZKalshi mid5
Oct 24 20:52ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 20:56ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 20:58ZKalshi mid7
Oct 24 21:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 21:04ZKalshi mid7
Oct 24 21:06ZKalshi mid7
Oct 24 22:06ZKalshi mid7
Oct 24 22:10ZKalshi mid7
Oct 24 22:52ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 24 23:00ZKalshi mid6

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 3% to 6%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 24 17:02ZOct 24 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 24 17:00ZOct 24 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-24T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-24T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-24T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-24T18Z
PBE20%32%
Market at capture3%6%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

64° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
47ebbb8d-321b-4013-bdf3-50a29a1f837a
Compared with
fd0ce538-fc00-4517-82ee-577867f73724
Captured
Oct 24 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 24 23:00Z
Market observation
6% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-25, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 25, 2026, is greater than 63° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.