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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 28, 2026: PBE moves “71° to 72°” down to 5% from 30%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 27. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 27 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

30%5%

71° to 72° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−25 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 28, 2026?

71° to 72° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE5%0 pts since publication
Kalshi2%0 pts since publication
Gap+3

RESEARCH PBE Oct 27 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “71° to 72°” from 30% to 5% (−25 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 27 17:00Z → Oct 27 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 27 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 27 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 27 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 27 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “71° to 72°” from 30% to 5%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 68°F to 67°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 70°F to 66°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time19h13h—
GFS MOS forecast high68°F67°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high70°F66°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 27 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“71° to 72°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 27 14:04ZOct 27 18:32ZOct 27 23:00Z30%5%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 21% · Oct 27 14:04ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 30% · Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 5% · Oct 27 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 27 14:04ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.021
Oct 27 14:04ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 14:06ZKalshi mid5
Oct 27 14:08ZKalshi mid3
Oct 27 14:13ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 15:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 16:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 16:36ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.030
Oct 27 17:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 18:01ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 19:04ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 20:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 21:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 22:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 27 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.05
Oct 27 23:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 27 17:00ZOct 27 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 27 17:00ZOct 27 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T18Z
PBE30%5%
Market at capture2%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

71° to 72°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
cccf922b-f429-41fb-83fa-d44c1e639f7c
Compared with
4b896143-4e06-4528-864b-8cae9d5081c4
Captured
Oct 27 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 27 23:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-28, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 28, 2026, is between 71-72° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.