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Denver — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 29, 2026: PBE moves “67° to 68°” up to 30% from 13%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 28. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 28 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

13%30%

67° to 68° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+17 pts
Market at capture30%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 29, 2026?

67° to 68° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE30%0 pts since publication
Kalshi25%+2 pts since publication
Gap+5

RESEARCH PBE Oct 28 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “67° to 68°” from 13% to 30% (+17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 28 11:00Z → Oct 28 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 23% to 30%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 28 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 28 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 28 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 28 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “67° to 68°” from 13% to 30%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 66°F to 65°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 64°F to 66°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time25h19h—
GFS MOS forecast high66°F65°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high64°F66°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 28 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“67° to 68°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 28 14:02ZOct 28 15:31ZOct 28 17:00Z13%30%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 13% · Oct 28 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 30% · Oct 28 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 28 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 28 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.013
Oct 28 14:02ZKalshi mid23
Oct 28 14:06ZKalshi mid22
Oct 28 14:08ZKalshi mid24
Oct 28 14:10ZKalshi mid27
Oct 28 14:14ZKalshi mid27
Oct 28 14:32ZKalshi mid27
Oct 28 14:38ZKalshi mid26
Oct 28 14:44ZKalshi mid26
Oct 28 14:46ZKalshi mid25
Oct 28 14:54ZKalshi mid24
Oct 28 14:56ZKalshi mid23
Oct 28 14:58ZKalshi mid23
Oct 28 15:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 28 15:02ZKalshi mid24
Oct 28 15:04ZKalshi mid24
Oct 28 15:06ZKalshi mid25
Oct 28 16:00ZKalshi mid25
Oct 28 16:02ZKalshi mid26
Oct 28 16:06ZKalshi mid28
Oct 28 16:08ZKalshi mid27
Oct 28 16:16ZKalshi mid27
Oct 28 16:36ZKalshi mid29
Oct 28 16:56ZKalshi mid30
Oct 28 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.030
Oct 28 17:00ZKalshi mid30

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 23% to 30%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 28 14:02ZOct 28 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 28 11:00ZOct 28 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-28T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-28T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-28T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-28T12Z
PBE13%30%
Market at capture23%30%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

67° to 68°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c6915863-8a00-4af7-9918-f243967659e7
Compared with
bfebedf9-9a27-4730-8e82-ccafe9210354
Captured
Oct 28 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 28 17:00Z
Market observation
30% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-29, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 29, 2026, is between 67-68° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.