Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “67° to 68°” up to 30% from 13%
New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 29. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
67° to 68° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC
Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 30, 2026?
67° to 68° · PRE-WINDOW
Quick read
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “67° to 68°” from 13% to 30% (+17 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Oct 29 11:00Z → Oct 29 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, National Blend of Models forecast high.
- The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 8% to 11%.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Oct 29 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 29 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 29 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 29 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “67° to 68°” from 13% to 30%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 4°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 64°F to 66°F.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance lead time | 25h | 19h | — |
| National Blend spread | 3°F | 4°F | yes |
| National Blend of Models forecast high | 64°F | 66°F | yes |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 14:02Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 13 |
| Oct 29 14:02Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 29 14:04Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 29 14:06Z | Kalshi mid | 10 |
| Oct 29 14:10Z | Kalshi mid | 11 |
| Oct 29 14:14Z | Kalshi mid | 11 |
| Oct 29 15:00Z | Kalshi mid | 11 |
| Oct 29 16:00Z | Kalshi mid | 11 |
| Oct 29 16:06Z | Kalshi mid | 11 |
| Oct 29 17:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 30 |
| Oct 29 17:00Z | Kalshi mid | 11 |
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 8% to 11%.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Oct 29 14:02Z | Oct 29 17:00Z |
| Data cutoff | Oct 29 11:00Z | Oct 29 17:00Z |
| Guidance runs | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T06Z | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T12Z |
| PBE | 13% | 30% |
| Market at capture | 8% | 11% |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- 28a5dc63-ca7a-4a5b-a112-5dfc1d10eb80
- Compared with
- 56025293-674f-4eec-b644-c1603f17e4da
- Captured
- Oct 29 17:00Z
- Data cutoff
- Oct 29 17:00Z
- Market observation
- 11% · captured with the snapshot
- Source families
- NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
- Measurement
- Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-30, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
- Rounding
- Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
- Exceptions
- Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
- Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
- Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)
Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.