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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 1, 2026: PBE moves “71° or above” up to 60% from 41%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 31. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 31 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

41%60%

71° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+19 pts
Market at capture59%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 1, 2026?

71° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE60%0 pts since publication
Kalshi62%+13 pts since publication
Gap−2

RESEARCH PBE Oct 31 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “71° or above” from 41% to 60% (+19 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 31 11:00Z → Oct 31 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 49% to 59%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 31 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 31 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 31 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 31 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “71° or above” from 41% to 60%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 71°F to 70°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 70°F to 71°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
GFS MOS forecast high71°F70°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high70°F71°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“71° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31 14:02ZOct 31 15:31ZOct 31 17:00Z41%60%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 31 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.041
Oct 31 14:02ZKalshi mid49
Oct 31 14:04ZKalshi mid51
Oct 31 14:08ZKalshi mid52
Oct 31 14:12ZKalshi mid53
Oct 31 14:16ZKalshi mid54
Oct 31 14:18ZKalshi mid55
Oct 31 14:28ZKalshi mid55
Oct 31 15:00ZKalshi mid55
Oct 31 15:06ZKalshi mid56
Oct 31 15:16ZKalshi mid56
Oct 31 16:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 31 16:02ZKalshi mid56
Oct 31 16:12ZKalshi mid59
Oct 31 16:16ZKalshi mid59
Oct 31 16:26ZKalshi mid59
Oct 31 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.060
Oct 31 17:00ZKalshi mid59

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 49% to 59%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 31 14:02ZOct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 31 11:00ZOct 31 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T12Z
PBE41%60%
Market at capture49%59%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

71° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
a0440b82-a0f8-4309-a63a-41d520831539
Compared with
3c5e6fa4-2041-402d-b2e5-ffb0fa7fe03a
Captured
Oct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 31 17:00Z
Market observation
59% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-01, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 1, 2026, is greater than 70° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.