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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 12, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” up to 36% from 25%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 12 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

25%36%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture6%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 12, 2026?

79° to 80° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE36%0 pts since publication
Kalshi6%+1 pts since publication
Gap+30

RESEARCH PBE Nov 12 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 25% to 36% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 11 23:00Z → Nov 12 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 6%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 11 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 11 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 12 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 12 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 25% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 78°F to 79°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time14h8h—
National Blend of Models forecast high78°F79°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 12 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 11 15:02ZNov 11 22:01ZNov 12 05:00Z25%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 11 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 11 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 11 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 12 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 12 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 11 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 11 15:02ZKalshi mid3
Nov 11 15:12ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 15:16ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 15:18ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 16:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 16:12ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 16:16ZKalshi mid6
Nov 11 16:22ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 16:46ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 11 17:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 17:16ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 18:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 18:42ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 19:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 19:02ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 19:08ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 19:12ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 20:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 20:02ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 20:04ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 20:16ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 21:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 21:52ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 22:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 22:24ZKalshi mid4
Nov 11 22:32ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 11 23:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 11 23:06ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 00:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 01:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 01:40ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 01:42ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 02:00ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 02:02ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 02:20ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 02:38ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 02:44ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 03:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 03:26ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 03:48ZKalshi mid5
Nov 12 03:50ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 04:00ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 04:16ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 04:22ZKalshi mid6
Nov 12 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 12 05:00ZKalshi mid6

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 6%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 11 23:00ZNov 12 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 11 23:00ZNov 12 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-12T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-12T00Z
PBE25%36%
Market at capture5%6%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c464fac6-7468-4e19-9124-675be678061a
Compared with
08a23d68-0be6-4874-84b9-b1c2db69118b
Captured
Nov 12 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 12 05:00Z
Market observation
6% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-12, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 12, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.