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Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 14, 2026: PBE moves “68° or below” down to 25% from 40%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 13. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 13 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

40%25%

68° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−15 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 14, 2026?

68° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi3%+1 pts since publication
Gap+22

RESEARCH PBE Nov 14 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “68° or below” from 40% to 25% (−15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 13 17:00Z → Nov 13 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 13 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 13 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 13 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 13 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “68° or below” from 40% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 2°F to 1°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 69°F to 70°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 69°F to 70°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
National Blend spread2°F1°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high69°F70°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high69°F70°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 13 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“68° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 13 15:02ZNov 13 19:01ZNov 13 23:00Z40%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 13 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 40% · Nov 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 13 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 13 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 13 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 13 15:02ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 15:04ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 15:38ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 16:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.040
Nov 13 17:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 18:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 18:56ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 19:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 19:14ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 20:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 21:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 21:04ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 21:46ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 22:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 13 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 13 23:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 13 17:00ZNov 13 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 13 17:00ZNov 13 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T18Z
PBE40%25%
Market at capture2%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

68° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
07cd487c-9757-4e6b-b99b-ebd4120077ca
Compared with
09bc6a5e-0ceb-4732-8e31-067b48fc79c1
Captured
Nov 13 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 13 23:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-14, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 14, 2026, is less than 69° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.