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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 15, 2026: PBE moves “69° to 70°” down to 16% from 26%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 14. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 14 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

26%16%

69° to 70° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture6%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 15, 2026?

69° to 70° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday1%−15 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 71.6°F · latest 71.6°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Nov 15 20:34Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 15 18:19Z PBE 3% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 18:19Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “69° to 70°” from 26% to 16% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 14 17:00Z → Nov 14 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 6%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 14 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 14 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 14 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 14 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “69° to 70°” from 26% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 71°F to 72°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 71°F to 72°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
GFS MOS forecast high71°F72°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high71°F72°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 14 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“69° to 70°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 14 15:02ZNov 14 19:01ZNov 14 23:00Z26%16%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 14 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Nov 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 14 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 14 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 14 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Nov 14 15:02ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 15:06ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 15:32ZKalshi mid3
Nov 14 16:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 14 16:16ZKalshi mid3
Nov 14 16:52ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Nov 14 17:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 17:12ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 17:14ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 17:46ZKalshi mid3
Nov 14 18:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 18:34ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 19:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 20:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 20:02ZKalshi mid2
Nov 14 20:40ZKalshi mid3
Nov 14 20:58ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 21:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 21:02ZKalshi mid5
Nov 14 21:04ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 21:06ZKalshi mid3
Nov 14 21:42ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 21:44ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 22:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 22:20ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 22:24ZKalshi mid5
Nov 14 22:26ZKalshi mid4
Nov 14 22:44ZKalshi mid5
Nov 14 22:50ZKalshi mid6
Nov 14 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Nov 14 23:00ZKalshi mid6

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 6%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 14 17:00ZNov 14 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 14 17:00ZNov 14 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T18Z
PBE26%16%
Market at capture2%6%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

69° to 70°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
9563a3e0-6082-4f23-9916-e9fb8d83d8fe
Compared with
506c57f6-c763-4f45-8b83-9c81a64b934d
Captured
Nov 14 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 14 23:00Z
Market observation
6% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-15, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 15, 2026, is between 69-70° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.