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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 2, 2026: PBE moves “73° to 74°” down to 25% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:04 UTC on Nov 1. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 1 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%25%

73° to 74° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:04 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture65%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 2, 2026?

73° to 74° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi65%+4 pts since publication
Gap−40

RESEARCH PBE Nov 1 23:04Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “73° to 74°” from 36% to 25% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 1 17:00Z → Nov 1 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 61% to 65%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 1 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 1 23:04Z (cutoff Nov 1 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “73° to 74°” from 36% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 2°F to 1°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 74°F to 73°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 73°F to 72°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
National Blend spread2°F1°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high74°F73°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high73°F72°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 1 23:04ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“73° to 74°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 15:02ZNov 1 19:03ZNov 1 23:04Z36%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 1 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 1 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 1 23:04Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 1 23:04ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 1 15:02ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 15:04ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 15:28ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 16:06ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 16:36ZKalshi mid60
Nov 1 16:38ZKalshi mid61
Nov 1 16:42ZKalshi mid61
Nov 1 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 1 17:16ZKalshi mid61
Nov 1 17:38ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 17:52ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 17:54ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 18:14ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 18:56ZKalshi mid57
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 19:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 19:08ZKalshi mid61
Nov 1 19:10ZKalshi mid61
Nov 1 19:16ZKalshi mid61
Nov 1 19:26ZKalshi mid62
Nov 1 19:32ZKalshi mid63
Nov 1 19:34ZKalshi mid63
Nov 1 19:36ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 19:42ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 19:50ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 19:52ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 19:54ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 20:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 21:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 22:12ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 22:20ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 23:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 23:04ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 61% to 65%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 1 17:00ZNov 1 23:04Z
Data cutoffNov 1 17:00ZNov 1 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T18Z
PBE36%25%
Market at capture61%65%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

73° to 74°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
427efba9-f472-4357-8efe-2b1c16ff59c5
Compared with
7c3c8253-6629-498b-a3e5-6e11290b457b
Captured
Nov 1 23:04Z
Data cutoff
Nov 1 23:00Z
Market observation
65% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-02, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 2, 2026, is between 73-74° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.