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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 3, 2026: PBE moves “71° to 72°” up to 26% from 16%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 2 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

16%26%

71° to 72° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture8%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 3, 2026?

71° to 72° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE26%0 pts since publication
Kalshi8%+3 pts since publication
Gap+18

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “71° to 72°” from 16% to 26% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 2 17:00Z → Nov 2 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 8%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 2 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 2 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 2 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “71° to 72°” from 16% to 26%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 74°F to 73°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
National Blend of Models forecast high74°F73°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“71° to 72°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 2 15:02ZNov 2 19:01ZNov 2 23:00Z16%26%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Nov 2 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 2 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Nov 2 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 2 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Nov 2 15:02ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 15:08ZKalshi mid6
Nov 2 15:18ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 15:22ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 16:08ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 17:22ZKalshi mid4
Nov 2 17:28ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 17:40ZKalshi mid4
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 20:26ZKalshi mid5
Nov 2 20:34ZKalshi mid6
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid6
Nov 2 21:22ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 21:24ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 21:26ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 21:34ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 21:36ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 22:04ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 22:08ZKalshi mid7
Nov 2 22:54ZKalshi mid8
Nov 2 22:56ZKalshi mid8
Nov 2 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid8

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 8%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 2 17:00ZNov 2 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 2 17:00ZNov 2 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T18Z
PBE16%26%
Market at capture5%8%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

71° to 72°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
53405a69-19f5-488c-be21-99a835dba294
Compared with
89bacf5f-8bf7-4b21-8656-8f60771c4c06
Captured
Nov 2 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 2 23:00Z
Market observation
8% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-03, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 3, 2026, is between 71-72° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.