PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 5, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” up to 36% from 25%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 5 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

25%36%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture41%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 5, 2026?

79° to 80° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE36%0 pts since publication
Kalshi46%−5 pts since publication
Gap−10

RESEARCH PBE Nov 5 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 25% to 36% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 4 23:00Z → Nov 5 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 51% to 41%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 4 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 4 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 5 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 5 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 25% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 75°F to 79°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 78°F to 79°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time14h8h—
GFS MOS forecast high75°F79°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high78°F79°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 5 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 4 15:02ZNov 4 22:01ZNov 5 05:00Z25%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 4 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 5 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 5 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 4 15:02ZKalshi mid35
Nov 4 15:04ZKalshi mid38
Nov 4 15:06ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 15:08ZKalshi mid43
Nov 4 15:10ZKalshi mid46
Nov 4 15:12ZKalshi mid48
Nov 4 15:14ZKalshi mid48
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid48
Nov 4 16:16ZKalshi mid48
Nov 4 16:18ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 16:52ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 17:08ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 17:16ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 17:30ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 17:32ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 17:34ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 17:42ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 17:56ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 18:20ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 18:26ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 18:36ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 18:46ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 18:56ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 19:28ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 19:56ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 20:18ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 20:50ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 21:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 21:16ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 21:18ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 21:24ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 21:30ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 21:32ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 21:50ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 21:52ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 22:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 22:18ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 22:20ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 22:24ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 22:26ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 22:36ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 22:56ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 4 23:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 23:06ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 23:12ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 23:14ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 23:28ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 23:30ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 23:36ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 23:56ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 00:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 00:12ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 00:22ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 00:30ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 01:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 01:08ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 01:36ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 01:38ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 01:50ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 02:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 02:12ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 02:20ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 02:26ZKalshi mid49
Nov 5 02:28ZKalshi mid49
Nov 5 02:36ZKalshi mid48
Nov 5 02:40ZKalshi mid49
Nov 5 02:42ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 02:58ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 03:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 03:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 03:14ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 03:22ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 03:28ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 03:38ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 03:40ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 03:48ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 04:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 04:08ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 04:10ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 04:18ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 04:22ZKalshi mid45
Nov 5 04:32ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 04:34ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 04:48ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 5 05:00ZKalshi mid41

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 51% to 41%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 4 23:00ZNov 5 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 4 23:00ZNov 5 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-04T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-04T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-05T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-05T00Z
PBE25%36%
Market at capture51%41%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
aca6c070-83b7-4bd5-a208-b66d6c0fa14f
Compared with
006f9302-5778-4d78-aa78-89ae37305b41
Captured
Nov 5 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 5 05:00Z
Market observation
41% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-05, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 5, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.