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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 6, 2026: PBE moves “83° to 84°” down to 25% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 6 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%25%

83° to 84° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture44%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 6, 2026?

83° to 84° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi48%+20 pts since publication
Gap−23

RESEARCH PBE Nov 6 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “83° to 84°” from 36% to 25% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 5 23:00Z → Nov 6 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 28% to 44%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 5 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 5 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 6 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 6 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “83° to 84°” from 36% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 80°F to 82°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 83°F to 82°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time14h8h—
GFS MOS forecast high80°F82°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high83°F82°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 6 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“83° to 84°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 5 15:00ZNov 5 22:00ZNov 6 05:00Z36%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 5 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 5 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 6 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 6 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 5 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 5 15:02ZKalshi mid35
Nov 5 15:08ZKalshi mid37
Nov 5 15:10ZKalshi mid38
Nov 5 15:12ZKalshi mid39
Nov 5 15:14ZKalshi mid38
Nov 5 15:30ZKalshi mid37
Nov 5 15:32ZKalshi mid37
Nov 5 15:34ZKalshi mid34
Nov 5 15:36ZKalshi mid34
Nov 5 15:42ZKalshi mid33
Nov 5 15:44ZKalshi mid33
Nov 5 15:48ZKalshi mid35
Nov 5 15:50ZKalshi mid35
Nov 5 15:52ZKalshi mid34
Nov 5 15:58ZKalshi mid34
Nov 5 16:00ZKalshi mid34
Nov 5 16:02ZKalshi mid33
Nov 5 16:04ZKalshi mid33
Nov 5 16:08ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 16:10ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 16:14ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 16:16ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 16:18ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 16:28ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 16:36ZKalshi mid30
Nov 5 16:42ZKalshi mid31
Nov 5 16:48ZKalshi mid31
Nov 5 16:54ZKalshi mid32
Nov 5 16:56ZKalshi mid32
Nov 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 5 17:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 5 17:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 17:08ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 17:48ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 17:52ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 17:56ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 18:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 18:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 18:54ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 18:56ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 19:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 19:08ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 19:54ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 19:58ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 20:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 20:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 20:04ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 20:16ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 20:36ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 20:38ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 20:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 20:56ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 21:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 21:04ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 21:56ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 22:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 22:06ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 22:12ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 22:20ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 22:28ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 22:32ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 22:34ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 22:40ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 22:48ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 5 23:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 23:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 23:10ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 23:14ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 23:16ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 23:18ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 23:24ZKalshi mid25
Nov 5 23:28ZKalshi mid23
Nov 5 23:32ZKalshi mid23
Nov 5 23:38ZKalshi mid22
Nov 5 23:40ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 00:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 00:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 00:08ZKalshi mid23
Nov 6 00:12ZKalshi mid23
Nov 6 00:54ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 01:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 01:18ZKalshi mid24
Nov 6 01:24ZKalshi mid24
Nov 6 01:26ZKalshi mid24
Nov 6 01:30ZKalshi mid25
Nov 6 01:32ZKalshi mid25
Nov 6 01:34ZKalshi mid26
Nov 6 01:36ZKalshi mid28
Nov 6 01:38ZKalshi mid28
Nov 6 01:40ZKalshi mid28
Nov 6 01:42ZKalshi mid28
Nov 6 02:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 6 02:06ZKalshi mid28
Nov 6 02:14ZKalshi mid28
Nov 6 02:54ZKalshi mid29
Nov 6 02:58ZKalshi mid31
Nov 6 03:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 6 03:02ZKalshi mid30
Nov 6 03:48ZKalshi mid32
Nov 6 03:58ZKalshi mid35
Nov 6 04:00ZKalshi mid35
Nov 6 04:04ZKalshi mid36
Nov 6 04:06ZKalshi mid37
Nov 6 04:08ZKalshi mid38
Nov 6 04:10ZKalshi mid39
Nov 6 04:12ZKalshi mid40
Nov 6 04:46ZKalshi mid44
Nov 6 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 6 05:00ZKalshi mid44

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 28% to 44%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 5 23:00ZNov 6 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 5 23:00ZNov 6 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-05T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-05T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-06T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-06T00Z
PBE36%25%
Market at capture28%44%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

83° to 84°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
5ff6e1f1-09f1-4680-8ffe-cec0c8e3879c
Compared with
33d114a5-2e16-4c60-b595-2dcca6d6354f
Captured
Nov 6 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 6 05:00Z
Market observation
44% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 6, 2026, is between 83-84° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.