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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 7, 2026: PBE moves “85° to 86°” down to 25% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 6 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%25%

85° to 86° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture50%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 7, 2026?

85° to 86° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi51%+11 pts since publication
Gap−26

RESEARCH PBE Nov 7 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “85° to 86°” from 36% to 25% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 6 17:00Z → Nov 6 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 40% to 50%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 6 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 6 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 6 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 6 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “85° to 86°” from 36% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 2°F to 1°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 85°F to 84°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
National Blend spread2°F1°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high85°F84°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 6 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“85° to 86°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 6 15:02ZNov 6 19:01ZNov 6 23:00Z36%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 6 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 6 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 6 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 6 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 6 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 6 15:04ZKalshi mid43
Nov 6 15:06ZKalshi mid43
Nov 6 15:08ZKalshi mid39
Nov 6 15:18ZKalshi mid38
Nov 6 15:20ZKalshi mid37
Nov 6 15:22ZKalshi mid37
Nov 6 15:28ZKalshi mid37
Nov 6 15:30ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 15:40ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 15:42ZKalshi mid42
Nov 6 15:46ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 15:50ZKalshi mid39
Nov 6 16:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 6 16:04ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 16:06ZKalshi mid42
Nov 6 16:10ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 16:12ZKalshi mid38
Nov 6 16:14ZKalshi mid39
Nov 6 16:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 6 16:24ZKalshi mid40
Nov 6 16:42ZKalshi mid40
Nov 6 16:52ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 6 17:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 6 17:02ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 17:26ZKalshi mid42
Nov 6 17:30ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 17:34ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 18:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 6 18:06ZKalshi mid43
Nov 6 18:08ZKalshi mid43
Nov 6 18:16ZKalshi mid44
Nov 6 18:20ZKalshi mid45
Nov 6 18:26ZKalshi mid45
Nov 6 18:36ZKalshi mid46
Nov 6 18:54ZKalshi mid47
Nov 6 19:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 6 19:02ZKalshi mid47
Nov 6 19:26ZKalshi mid46
Nov 6 19:36ZKalshi mid47
Nov 6 19:46ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 19:50ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 19:54ZKalshi mid49
Nov 6 19:58ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 20:00ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 20:02ZKalshi mid49
Nov 6 20:04ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 20:26ZKalshi mid46
Nov 6 20:28ZKalshi mid47
Nov 6 20:40ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 20:46ZKalshi mid47
Nov 6 20:48ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 20:52ZKalshi mid49
Nov 6 20:54ZKalshi mid50
Nov 6 21:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 6 21:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 6 21:12ZKalshi mid52
Nov 6 21:22ZKalshi mid52
Nov 6 21:38ZKalshi mid50
Nov 6 22:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 6 22:02ZKalshi mid50
Nov 6 22:16ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 22:28ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 22:34ZKalshi mid48
Nov 6 22:36ZKalshi mid49
Nov 6 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 6 23:00ZKalshi mid50

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 40% to 50%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 6 17:00ZNov 6 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 6 17:00ZNov 6 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-06T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-06T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-06T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-06T18Z
PBE36%25%
Market at capture40%50%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

85° to 86°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
9d3b871d-6e23-41ab-82c2-9ffe9f967e21
Compared with
8d8ae407-5279-4ed7-94bf-7b94d27c5b44
Captured
Nov 6 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 6 23:00Z
Market observation
50% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-07, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 7, 2026, is between 85-86° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.