PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 8, 2026: PBE moves “87° to 88°” down to 25% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 7 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%25%

87° to 88° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture57%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 8, 2026?

87° to 88° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi61%+16 pts since publication
Gap−36

RESEARCH PBE Nov 7 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “87° to 88°” from 36% to 25% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 7 17:00Z → Nov 7 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 45% to 57%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 7 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 7 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 7 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 7 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “87° to 88°” from 36% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 83°F to 84°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 87°F to 86°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
GFS MOS forecast high83°F84°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high87°F86°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“87° to 88°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 7 15:02ZNov 7 19:01ZNov 7 23:00Z36%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 7 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 7 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 7 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 7 15:06ZKalshi mid34
Nov 7 15:08ZKalshi mid35
Nov 7 15:10ZKalshi mid36
Nov 7 15:12ZKalshi mid37
Nov 7 15:16ZKalshi mid38
Nov 7 15:20ZKalshi mid38
Nov 7 15:22ZKalshi mid43
Nov 7 15:24ZKalshi mid44
Nov 7 15:26ZKalshi mid44
Nov 7 15:28ZKalshi mid44
Nov 7 15:30ZKalshi mid43
Nov 7 15:32ZKalshi mid42
Nov 7 15:40ZKalshi mid44
Nov 7 15:42ZKalshi mid41
Nov 7 15:50ZKalshi mid42
Nov 7 15:52ZKalshi mid41
Nov 7 16:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 7 16:02ZKalshi mid42
Nov 7 16:06ZKalshi mid43
Nov 7 16:08ZKalshi mid44
Nov 7 16:20ZKalshi mid44
Nov 7 16:36ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 16:46ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 16:48ZKalshi mid46
Nov 7 16:54ZKalshi mid45
Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 7 17:00ZKalshi mid45
Nov 7 17:16ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 17:34ZKalshi mid48
Nov 7 17:46ZKalshi mid49
Nov 7 17:48ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 17:50ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 18:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 18:06ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 18:16ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 18:20ZKalshi mid46
Nov 7 18:30ZKalshi mid46
Nov 7 19:00ZKalshi mid48
Nov 7 19:02ZKalshi mid48
Nov 7 19:26ZKalshi mid47
Nov 7 19:44ZKalshi mid48
Nov 7 19:46ZKalshi mid51
Nov 7 19:48ZKalshi mid55
Nov 7 19:50ZKalshi mid54
Nov 7 20:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 7 20:04ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 20:10ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 20:50ZKalshi mid55
Nov 7 20:54ZKalshi mid55
Nov 7 21:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 21:04ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 21:06ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 21:16ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 21:56ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:00ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:04ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:18ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:22ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:24ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:26ZKalshi mid52
Nov 7 22:32ZKalshi mid53
Nov 7 22:34ZKalshi mid54
Nov 7 22:36ZKalshi mid54
Nov 7 22:46ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:50ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 22:52ZKalshi mid57
Nov 7 22:54ZKalshi mid56
Nov 7 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Nov 7 23:00ZKalshi mid57

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 45% to 57%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T18Z
PBE36%25%
Market at capture45%57%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

87° to 88°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
e65b09d9-90a8-4039-b559-31153c303ef4
Compared with
26efc7cb-c303-4c51-8820-7008bfb852e4
Captured
Nov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 7 23:00Z
Market observation
57% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 8, 2026, is between 87-88° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.