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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 10, 2026: PBE moves “76° or above” up to 60% from 41%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:01 UTC and 23:01 UTC on Oct 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 9 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

41%60%

76° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:01 UTC → 23:01 UTC

Move+19 pts
Market at capture77%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 10, 2026?

76° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE60%0 pts since publication
Kalshi84%+8 pts since publication
Gap−24

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 23:01Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “76° or above” from 41% to 60% (+19 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 9 17:00Z → Oct 9 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 76% to 77%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 9 17:01Z (data cutoff Oct 9 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 9 23:01Z (cutoff Oct 9 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “76° or above” from 41% to 60%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 72°F to 74°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 75°F to 76°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
GFS MOS forecast high72°F74°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high75°F76°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 9 23:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“76° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 9 14:02ZOct 9 18:31ZOct 9 23:01Z41%60%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 9 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 9 17:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 9 23:01Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 9 23:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 9 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.041
Oct 9 14:02ZKalshi mid72
Oct 9 14:05ZKalshi mid75
Oct 9 14:07ZKalshi mid75
Oct 9 14:11ZKalshi mid75
Oct 9 14:15ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 14:25ZKalshi mid73
Oct 9 14:27ZKalshi mid73
Oct 9 14:31ZKalshi mid73
Oct 9 14:41ZKalshi mid74
Oct 9 14:43ZKalshi mid74
Oct 9 14:53ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 14:55ZKalshi mid75
Oct 9 14:57ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 14:59ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 15:02ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 15:03ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 15:05ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 15:07ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 15:11ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 15:23ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 15:25ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 15:27ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 15:37ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 16:01ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 16:05ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 16:07ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 16:27ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 16:43ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 16:49ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 17:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.041
Oct 9 17:01ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 17:12ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 17:21ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 17:23ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 17:29ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 17:53ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 17:59ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 18:01ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 18:03ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 18:13ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 18:17ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 18:21ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 18:23ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 18:29ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 18:43ZKalshi mid73
Oct 9 18:45ZKalshi mid73
Oct 9 18:47ZKalshi mid73
Oct 9 18:49ZKalshi mid75
Oct 9 18:51ZKalshi mid74
Oct 9 18:53ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 19:01ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 19:05ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 19:09ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 19:37ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 19:39ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 19:49ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 19:53ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 20:01ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 20:03ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 20:13ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 20:29ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 20:31ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 21:01ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 21:05ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 21:07ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 21:11ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 21:30ZKalshi mid78
Oct 9 21:38ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 21:40ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 22:01ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 22:02ZKalshi mid79
Oct 9 22:08ZKalshi mid81
Oct 9 22:10ZKalshi mid82
Oct 9 22:14ZKalshi mid82
Oct 9 22:28ZKalshi mid82
Oct 9 22:38ZKalshi mid81
Oct 9 22:42ZKalshi mid81
Oct 9 22:44ZKalshi mid80
Oct 9 22:46ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 22:48ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 22:52ZKalshi mid76
Oct 9 22:54ZKalshi mid77
Oct 9 23:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.060
Oct 9 23:01ZKalshi mid77

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 76% to 77%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 9 17:01ZOct 9 23:01Z
Data cutoffOct 9 17:00ZOct 9 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T18Z
PBE41%60%
Market at capture76%77%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

76° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
396607e7-9494-4b84-a768-8de657c57e8d
Compared with
29e72769-0b90-4698-b8c6-188d6fabb47b
Captured
Oct 9 23:01Z
Data cutoff
Oct 9 23:00Z
Market observation
77% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 10, 2026, is greater than 75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.