PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Get All Access
Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 11, 2026: PBE moves “69° or below” down to 25% from 40%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 11 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

40%25%

69° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−15 pts
Market at capture5%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 11, 2026?

69° or below · WINDOW CLOSED · AWAITING SETTLEMENT

PBE · live intraday1%−24 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 73.4°F · latest 62.6°F () · rain so far 0.12 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 11 22:19Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 11 09:14Z PBE 1% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 09:14Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “69° or below” from 40% to 25% (−15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 10 23:00Z → Oct 11 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 13% to 5%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 10 23:00Z (data cutoff Oct 10 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 11 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 11 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “69° or below” from 40% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 70°F to 74°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 70°F to 71°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time14h8h—
GFS MOS forecast high70°F74°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high70°F71°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 11 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“69° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 10 14:00ZOct 10 21:30ZOct 11 05:00Z40%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 40% · Oct 10 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 40% · Oct 10 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 40% · Oct 10 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 11 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 11 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 10 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.040
Oct 10 14:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 14:06ZKalshi mid12
Oct 10 14:08ZKalshi mid10
Oct 10 14:10ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 14:12ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 14:14ZKalshi mid6
Oct 10 14:20ZKalshi mid6
Oct 10 14:22ZKalshi mid6
Oct 10 14:24ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 14:26ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 14:28ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 14:32ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 14:34ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 15:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 15:34ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 15:38ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 15:46ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 15:48ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 16:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 16:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 16:14ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 16:46ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 16:48ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.040
Oct 10 17:00ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 17:08ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 17:12ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 17:14ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 17:16ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 18:04ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 18:06ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 19:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 19:14ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 19:26ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 19:32ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 19:34ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 19:40ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 19:42ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 19:50ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 19:54ZKalshi mid10
Oct 10 19:56ZKalshi mid10
Oct 10 19:58ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 20:00ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 20:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 20:18ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 20:20ZKalshi mid6
Oct 10 20:28ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 20:34ZKalshi mid7
Oct 10 20:46ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 21:00ZKalshi mid8
Oct 10 21:10ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 21:22ZKalshi mid9
Oct 10 21:32ZKalshi mid10
Oct 10 21:44ZKalshi mid10
Oct 10 21:46ZKalshi mid10
Oct 10 21:48ZKalshi mid11
Oct 10 22:00ZKalshi mid11
Oct 10 22:20ZKalshi mid12
Oct 10 22:24ZKalshi mid12
Oct 10 22:30ZKalshi mid13
Oct 10 22:36ZKalshi mid13
Oct 10 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.040
Oct 10 23:00ZKalshi mid13
Oct 10 23:02ZKalshi mid13
Oct 11 00:00ZKalshi mid13
Oct 11 00:06ZKalshi mid12
Oct 11 00:16ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 00:18ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 00:22ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 00:24ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 00:26ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 00:40ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 00:46ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 01:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 01:10ZKalshi mid13
Oct 11 01:30ZKalshi mid13
Oct 11 01:44ZKalshi mid12
Oct 11 01:50ZKalshi mid13
Oct 11 02:00ZKalshi mid13
Oct 11 02:02ZKalshi mid11
Oct 11 02:04ZKalshi mid12
Oct 11 02:06ZKalshi mid12
Oct 11 02:12ZKalshi mid17
Oct 11 02:20ZKalshi mid14
Oct 11 02:26ZKalshi mid14
Oct 11 02:30ZKalshi mid14
Oct 11 02:48ZKalshi mid12
Oct 11 02:54ZKalshi mid10
Oct 11 03:00ZKalshi mid10
Oct 11 03:04ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 03:06ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 03:12ZKalshi mid17
Oct 11 03:18ZKalshi mid18
Oct 11 03:20ZKalshi mid17
Oct 11 03:22ZKalshi mid14
Oct 11 03:30ZKalshi mid11
Oct 11 03:32ZKalshi mid12
Oct 11 03:54ZKalshi mid10
Oct 11 03:56ZKalshi mid10
Oct 11 03:58ZKalshi mid11
Oct 11 04:00ZKalshi mid11
Oct 11 04:02ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 04:04ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 04:08ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 04:14ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 04:16ZKalshi mid10
Oct 11 04:18ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 04:20ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 04:24ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 04:48ZKalshi mid5
Oct 11 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 11 05:00ZKalshi mid5

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 13% to 5%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 10 23:00ZOct 11 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 10 23:00ZOct 11 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-10T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-10T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-11T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-11T00Z
PBE40%25%
Market at capture13%5%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

69° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
5ba1f4b8-3359-42b0-a89e-2e317b7bc089
Compared with
75a21394-b375-4700-b006-d59a1d43fd28
Captured
Oct 11 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 11 05:00Z
Market observation
5% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-11, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 11, 2026, is less than 70° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.