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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 12, 2026: PBE moves “64° to 65°” down to 16% from 26%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:01 UTC and 17:01 UTC on Oct 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 11 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

26%16%

64° to 65° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:01 UTC → 17:01 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture7%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 12, 2026?

64° to 65° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday1%−15 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 66.2°F · latest 66.2°F () · rain so far 0.11 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 12 20:14Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 11 23:00Z PBE 26% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 12 16:04Z PBE 15% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 15:19Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 12 18:24Z PBE 4% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 18:24Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “64° to 65°” from 26% to 16% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 11 11:00Z → Oct 11 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 11 14:01Z (data cutoff Oct 11 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 11 17:01Z (cutoff Oct 11 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “64° to 65°” from 26% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 66°F to 67°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
National Blend of Models forecast high66°F67°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 11 17:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“64° to 65°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 11 14:01ZOct 11 15:31ZOct 11 17:01Z26%16%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 11 14:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 11 17:01Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 11 17:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 11 14:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 11 14:02ZKalshi mid17
Oct 11 14:06ZKalshi mid10
Oct 11 14:08ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 14:10ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 14:12ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 14:16ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 14:18ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 14:20ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 14:22ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 14:24ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 14:44ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 14:56ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 15:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 15:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 15:04ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 15:06ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 15:24ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 15:34ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 15:50ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 16:01ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 16:08ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 16:30ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 17:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 11 17:01ZKalshi mid7

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 11 14:01ZOct 11 17:01Z
Data cutoffOct 11 11:00ZOct 11 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-11T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-11T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-11T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-11T12Z
PBE26%16%
Market at capture—7%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

64° to 65°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c5ff76b8-7f85-489e-acd2-d9d752ddd6dd
Compared with
e35eedf9-e873-438f-a9db-4bee45e7373b
Captured
Oct 11 17:01Z
Data cutoff
Oct 11 17:00Z
Market observation
7% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-12, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 12, 2026, is between 64-65° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.