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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 13, 2026: PBE moves “67° or below” up to 25% from 14%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 12 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

14%25%

67° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 13, 2026?

67° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi2%0 pts since publication
Gap+23

RESEARCH PBE Oct 12 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “67° or below” from 14% to 25% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 12 17:00Z → Oct 12 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 12 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 12 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 12 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 12 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “67° or below” from 14% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 72°F to 71°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 70°F to 69°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
GFS MOS forecast high72°F71°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high70°F69°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 12 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“67° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 12 14:00ZOct 12 18:30ZOct 12 23:00Z14%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 14% · Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 14% · Oct 12 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 12 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 12 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.014
Oct 12 14:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:02ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:04ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:06ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 14:38ZKalshi mid4
Oct 12 14:48ZKalshi mid4
Oct 12 15:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 15:02ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 15:08ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 16:01ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 16:12ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.014
Oct 12 17:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 18:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 19:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 20:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 21:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 21:24ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 22:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 12 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 12 23:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 12 17:00ZOct 12 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 12 17:00ZOct 12 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T18Z
PBE14%25%
Market at capture2%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

67° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
0a1f1bfa-1db5-4b4e-b62a-ec17002ed498
Compared with
fb6bbd29-5957-4c2c-8c58-d9f53fac2ae5
Captured
Oct 12 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 12 23:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-13, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 13, 2026, is less than 68° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.