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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 14, 2026: PBE moves “78° to 79°” up to 36% from 25%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:01 UTC on Oct 14. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 14 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

25%36%

78° to 79° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:01 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture36%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 14, 2026?

78° to 79° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE36%0 pts since publication
Kalshi37%+3 pts since publication
Gap−1

RESEARCH PBE Oct 14 05:01Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “78° to 79°” from 25% to 36% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 13 23:00Z → Oct 14 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 34% to 36%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 13 23:00Z (data cutoff Oct 13 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 14 05:01Z (cutoff Oct 14 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “78° to 79°” from 25% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 77°F to 81°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 77°F to 78°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time14h8h—
GFS MOS forecast high77°F81°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high77°F78°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 14 05:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“78° to 79°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 13 14:02ZOct 13 21:31ZOct 14 05:01Z25%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 13 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 13 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 14 05:01Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 14 05:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 13 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 13 14:02ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 14:04ZKalshi mid30
Oct 13 14:06ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 14:08ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 14:12ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 14:28ZKalshi mid25
Oct 13 14:30ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 14:32ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 14:34ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 14:40ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 14:56ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 14:58ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 15:00ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 15:02ZKalshi mid25
Oct 13 15:04ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 15:10ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 15:24ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 15:28ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 16:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 16:06ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 16:14ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 16:28ZKalshi mid23
Oct 13 16:46ZKalshi mid23
Oct 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 13 17:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 13 17:04ZKalshi mid22
Oct 13 17:38ZKalshi mid25
Oct 13 17:44ZKalshi mid23
Oct 13 17:46ZKalshi mid24
Oct 13 17:52ZKalshi mid25
Oct 13 17:58ZKalshi mid25
Oct 13 18:00ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 18:02ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 18:08ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 18:32ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 18:34ZKalshi mid26
Oct 13 19:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 19:06ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 19:24ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 19:32ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 20:00ZKalshi mid27
Oct 13 20:02ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 20:14ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 21:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 21:02ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 22:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 22:14ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 22:26ZKalshi mid28
Oct 13 22:30ZKalshi mid30
Oct 13 22:32ZKalshi mid30
Oct 13 22:34ZKalshi mid30
Oct 13 22:36ZKalshi mid31
Oct 13 22:38ZKalshi mid31
Oct 13 22:42ZKalshi mid32
Oct 13 22:44ZKalshi mid33
Oct 13 22:46ZKalshi mid33
Oct 13 22:50ZKalshi mid34
Oct 13 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 13 23:00ZKalshi mid34
Oct 13 23:02ZKalshi mid35
Oct 13 23:04ZKalshi mid35
Oct 13 23:32ZKalshi mid36
Oct 13 23:34ZKalshi mid37
Oct 13 23:38ZKalshi mid39
Oct 13 23:52ZKalshi mid38
Oct 13 23:58ZKalshi mid38
Oct 14 00:01ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 00:04ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 00:26ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 00:45ZKalshi mid38
Oct 14 00:46ZKalshi mid38
Oct 14 01:01ZKalshi mid38
Oct 14 01:02ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 01:08ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 01:31ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 01:36ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 01:39ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 01:41ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 01:47ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 01:51ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 02:01ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 02:03ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 02:25ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 03:01ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 03:14ZKalshi mid37
Oct 14 03:43ZKalshi mid35
Oct 14 03:51ZKalshi mid35
Oct 14 04:01ZKalshi mid35
Oct 14 04:05ZKalshi mid35
Oct 14 04:21ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 04:28ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 04:37ZKalshi mid36
Oct 14 05:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Oct 14 05:01ZKalshi mid36

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 34% to 36%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 13 23:00ZOct 14 05:01Z
Data cutoffOct 13 23:00ZOct 14 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-13T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-13T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-14T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-14T00Z
PBE25%36%
Market at capture34%36%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

78° to 79°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
145db6e9-0a45-4014-8dfa-b0299f8d7e6b
Compared with
8fd1f6ac-f0a8-4af6-b937-ec82861aadd1
Captured
Oct 14 05:01Z
Data cutoff
Oct 14 05:00Z
Market observation
36% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-14, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 14, 2026, is between 78-79° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.