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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 15, 2026: PBE moves “85° to 86°” down to 16% from 26%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 14. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 14 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

26%16%

85° to 86° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture13%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 15, 2026?

85° to 86° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE16%0 pts since publication
Kalshi12%−1 pts since publication
Gap+4

RESEARCH PBE Oct 14 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “85° to 86°” from 26% to 16% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 14 11:00Z → Oct 14 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 14 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 14 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 14 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 14 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “85° to 86°” from 26% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 2°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 91°F to 87°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 87°F to 88°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
National Blend spread3°F2°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high91°F87°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high87°F88°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 14 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“85° to 86°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 14 14:00ZOct 14 15:30ZOct 14 17:00Z26%16%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 14 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 14 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 14 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 14 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 14 14:02ZKalshi mid35
Oct 14 14:04ZKalshi mid21
Oct 14 14:06ZKalshi mid25
Oct 14 14:10ZKalshi mid18
Oct 14 14:12ZKalshi mid17
Oct 14 14:14ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 14:16ZKalshi mid14
Oct 14 14:28ZKalshi mid14
Oct 14 14:38ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 14:44ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 14:48ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 14:50ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 14:56ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 15:00ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 15:02ZKalshi mid17
Oct 14 15:04ZKalshi mid17
Oct 14 15:06ZKalshi mid16
Oct 14 15:16ZKalshi mid14
Oct 14 15:24ZKalshi mid14
Oct 14 16:00ZKalshi mid14
Oct 14 16:04ZKalshi mid13
Oct 14 16:18ZKalshi mid13
Oct 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 14 17:00ZKalshi mid13

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 14 14:00ZOct 14 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 14 11:00ZOct 14 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-14T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-14T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-14T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-14T12Z
PBE26%16%
Market at capture—13%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

85° to 86°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c8ad6ed7-7239-42bc-ae59-ac93b8e9d5ae
Compared with
d712f707-6e4b-421e-aade-5d9e9a087cce
Captured
Oct 14 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 14 17:00Z
Market observation
13% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-15, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 15, 2026, is between 85-86° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.