PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Get All Access
Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 19, 2026: PBE moves “79° or above” down to 60% from 75%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 18. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 18 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

75%60%

79° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−15 pts
Market at capture85%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 19, 2026?

79° or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday99%+39 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 80.6°F · latest 78.8°F () · DELAYED

RESEARCH PBE Oct 19 18:34Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 18 23:00Z PBE 75% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 18 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 19 17:19Z PBE 55% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 17:19Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 19 18:04Z PBE 75% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 17:19Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 19 18:34Z PBE 99% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 18:34Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° or above” from 75% to 60% (−15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 18 11:00Z → Oct 18 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 18 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 18 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 18 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 18 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° or above” from 75% to 60%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 74°F to 78°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 80°F to 79°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
GFS MOS forecast high74°F78°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high80°F79°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 18 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 18 14:00ZOct 18 15:30ZOct 18 17:00Z75%60%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 75% · Oct 18 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 18 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 18 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 18 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.075
Oct 18 14:06ZKalshi mid74
Oct 18 14:08ZKalshi mid82
Oct 18 14:10ZKalshi mid82
Oct 18 14:12ZKalshi mid82
Oct 18 14:16ZKalshi mid82
Oct 18 14:18ZKalshi mid82
Oct 18 14:22ZKalshi mid83
Oct 18 14:24ZKalshi mid84
Oct 18 14:28ZKalshi mid82
Oct 18 14:38ZKalshi mid84
Oct 18 14:44ZKalshi mid83
Oct 18 14:46ZKalshi mid83
Oct 18 14:48ZKalshi mid83
Oct 18 14:54ZKalshi mid84
Oct 18 15:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 18 15:08ZKalshi mid85
Oct 18 15:16ZKalshi mid84
Oct 18 15:20ZKalshi mid85
Oct 18 15:26ZKalshi mid85
Oct 18 16:00ZKalshi mid85
Oct 18 16:24ZKalshi mid85
Oct 18 16:28ZKalshi mid86
Oct 18 16:32ZKalshi mid86
Oct 18 16:34ZKalshi mid86
Oct 18 16:44ZKalshi mid86
Oct 18 16:52ZKalshi mid85
Oct 18 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.060
Oct 18 17:00ZKalshi mid85

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 18 14:00ZOct 18 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 18 11:00ZOct 18 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-18T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-18T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-18T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-18T12Z
PBE75%60%
Market at capture—85%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
49ce7784-d5c3-4727-9891-b2c613c9be22
Compared with
83892326-883b-41d4-a894-e705734f05ec
Captured
Oct 18 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 18 17:00Z
Market observation
85% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-19, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 19, 2026, is greater than 78° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.