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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 20, 2026: PBE moves “75° or above” down to 75% from 86%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 19. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 19 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

86%75%

75° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture89%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 20, 2026?

75° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE75%0 pts since publication
Kalshi90%+1 pts since publication
Gap−15

RESEARCH PBE Oct 19 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “75° or above” from 86% to 75% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 19 11:00Z → Oct 19 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 19 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 19 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 19 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 19 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “75° or above” from 86% to 75%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 74°F to 75°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 77°F to 76°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
GFS MOS forecast high74°F75°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high77°F76°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 19 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“75° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 19 14:02ZOct 19 15:31ZOct 19 17:00Z86%75%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 86% · Oct 19 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 75% · Oct 19 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 19 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 19 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.086
Oct 19 14:04ZKalshi mid84
Oct 19 14:06ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 14:08ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 14:10ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 14:12ZKalshi mid90
Oct 19 14:14ZKalshi mid88
Oct 19 14:16ZKalshi mid88
Oct 19 14:26ZKalshi mid88
Oct 19 14:32ZKalshi mid88
Oct 19 14:52ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 15:00ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 15:04ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 16:00ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 16:14ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 16:22ZKalshi mid89
Oct 19 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.075
Oct 19 17:00ZKalshi mid89

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 19 14:02ZOct 19 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 19 11:00ZOct 19 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-19T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-19T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-19T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-19T12Z
PBE86%75%
Market at capture—89%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

75° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
3cc0979c-cef4-4352-b55a-b7bddbd7113d
Compared with
f5559ee5-f562-4213-9578-5e96ee7c0627
Captured
Oct 19 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 19 17:00Z
Market observation
89% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-20, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 20, 2026, is greater than 74° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.