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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 24, 2026: PBE moves “73° to 74°” down to 16% from 26%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 24. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 24 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

26%16%

73° to 74° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture5%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 24, 2026?

73° to 74° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday15%−1 pts since publication
Kalshi2%−4 pts since publication
Gap+13

At KLAX: high so far 64.4°F · latest 59.0°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 24 14:19Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “73° to 74°” from 26% to 16% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 23 23:00Z → Oct 24 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 5%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 23 23:00Z (data cutoff Oct 23 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 24 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 24 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “73° to 74°” from 26% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 75°F to 78°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 75°F to 76°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time14h8h—
GFS MOS forecast high75°F78°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high75°F76°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 24 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“73° to 74°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23 14:17ZOct 23 21:39ZOct 24 05:00Z26%16%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 23 14:17ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 23 17:08ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 23 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 24 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 24 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 23 14:17ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 23 14:17ZKalshi mid7
Oct 23 15:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 23 15:24ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 15:30ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 15:36ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 15:52ZKalshi mid9
Oct 23 16:12ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 17:08ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 23 17:08ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 18:17ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 19:00ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 20:00ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 20:02ZKalshi mid8
Oct 23 20:18ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 20:20ZKalshi mid5
Oct 23 20:22ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 21:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 21:26ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 21:30ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 21:38ZKalshi mid7
Oct 23 21:56ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 22:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 22:06ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 22:08ZKalshi mid6
Oct 23 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 23 23:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 00:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 00:34ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 01:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 24 01:36ZKalshi mid5
Oct 24 02:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 24 03:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 24 03:04ZKalshi mid5
Oct 24 04:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 24 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 24 05:00ZKalshi mid5

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 5%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 23 23:00ZOct 24 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 23 23:00ZOct 24 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-23T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-23T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-24T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-24T00Z
PBE26%16%
Market at capture6%5%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

73° to 74°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
8a7f51b4-5da7-467d-9c16-504e7f1dc88d
Compared with
c07eb496-6410-43cd-8a26-c2ef7a2fa5d0
Captured
Oct 24 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 24 05:00Z
Market observation
5% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-24, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 24, 2026, is between 73-74° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.