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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 25, 2026: PBE moves “78° to 79°” down to 25% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:02 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 24. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 24 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%25%

78° to 79° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:02 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture51%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 25, 2026?

78° to 79° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi59%+12 pts since publication
Gap−34

RESEARCH PBE Oct 24 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “78° to 79°” from 36% to 25% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 24 17:00Z → Oct 24 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 47% to 51%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 24 17:02Z (data cutoff Oct 24 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 24 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 24 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “78° to 79°” from 36% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 1°F to 2°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 78°F to 77°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time20h14h—
National Blend spread1°F2°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high78°F77°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 24 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“78° to 79°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 24 14:00ZOct 24 18:30ZOct 24 23:00Z36%25%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 24 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 24 17:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 24 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 24 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 24 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Oct 24 14:02ZKalshi mid43
Oct 24 14:06ZKalshi mid44
Oct 24 14:08ZKalshi mid44
Oct 24 14:10ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 14:17ZKalshi mid52
Oct 24 14:26ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 14:38ZKalshi mid49
Oct 24 14:44ZKalshi mid49
Oct 24 14:46ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 14:52ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 14:56ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 15:00ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 15:04ZKalshi mid49
Oct 24 15:16ZKalshi mid52
Oct 24 15:18ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 15:32ZKalshi mid49
Oct 24 15:54ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 16:00ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 16:02ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 16:04ZKalshi mid49
Oct 24 16:10ZKalshi mid47
Oct 24 16:16ZKalshi mid49
Oct 24 16:22ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 16:52ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 16:56ZKalshi mid47
Oct 24 17:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Oct 24 17:02ZKalshi mid47
Oct 24 17:36ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 17:56ZKalshi mid49
Oct 24 18:00ZKalshi mid48
Oct 24 18:02ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 18:16ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 18:48ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 18:52ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 19:00ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 19:36ZKalshi mid52
Oct 24 19:56ZKalshi mid52
Oct 24 20:00ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 20:02ZKalshi mid52
Oct 24 20:04ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 20:06ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 20:11ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 20:18ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 20:25ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 20:32ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 21:00ZKalshi mid50
Oct 24 21:48ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 22:06ZKalshi mid52
Oct 24 22:26ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 22:36ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 22:38ZKalshi mid51
Oct 24 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 24 23:00ZKalshi mid51

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 47% to 51%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 24 17:02ZOct 24 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 24 17:00ZOct 24 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-24T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-24T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-24T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-24T18Z
PBE36%25%
Market at capture47%51%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

78° to 79°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
0f627d7f-a07e-4666-a134-8ccf6fd8c161
Compared with
13ea1bfb-7b40-4a51-ae4e-87fb30ee9697
Captured
Oct 24 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 24 23:00Z
Market observation
51% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-25, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 25, 2026, is between 78-79° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.