PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 26, 2026: PBE moves “77° to 78°” up to 36% from 25%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 25. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 25 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

25%36%

77° to 78° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture51%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 26, 2026?

77° to 78° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday64%+28 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 77.0°F · latest 77.0°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 26 20:04Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 25 23:12Z PBE 25% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 25 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 26 16:29Z PBE 43% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 26 16:29Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 26 20:04Z PBE 64% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 26 18:34Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “77° to 78°” from 25% to 36% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 25 11:00Z → Oct 25 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 25 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 25 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 25 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 25 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “77° to 78°” from 25% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 73°F to 74°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 76°F to 77°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
GFS MOS forecast high73°F74°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high76°F77°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 25 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“77° to 78°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 25 14:02ZOct 25 15:31ZOct 25 17:00Z25%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 25 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 25 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 25 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 25 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 25 14:04ZKalshi mid44
Oct 25 14:06ZKalshi mid44
Oct 25 14:10ZKalshi mid47
Oct 25 14:14ZKalshi mid47
Oct 25 15:00ZKalshi mid47
Oct 25 15:05ZKalshi mid49
Oct 25 15:10ZKalshi mid52
Oct 25 15:14ZKalshi mid52
Oct 25 15:22ZKalshi mid53
Oct 25 15:28ZKalshi mid53
Oct 25 15:31ZKalshi mid53
Oct 25 15:36ZKalshi mid53
Oct 25 15:56ZKalshi mid54
Oct 25 16:00ZKalshi mid54
Oct 25 16:02ZKalshi mid54
Oct 25 16:16ZKalshi mid53
Oct 25 16:18ZKalshi mid53
Oct 25 16:33ZKalshi mid52
Oct 25 16:36ZKalshi mid52
Oct 25 16:44ZKalshi mid51
Oct 25 16:52ZKalshi mid51
Oct 25 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Oct 25 17:00ZKalshi mid51

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 25 14:02ZOct 25 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 25 11:00ZOct 25 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-25T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-25T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-25T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-25T12Z
PBE25%36%
Market at capture—51%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

77° to 78°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
30e811c7-69ce-42a1-a8db-df808429d660
Compared with
ca051f90-498c-48b0-8e20-ebd4758d110e
Captured
Oct 25 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 25 17:00Z
Market observation
51% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-26, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 26, 2026, is between 77-78° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.