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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 27, 2026: PBE moves “76° to 77°” up to 36% from 25%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 26. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 26 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

25%36%

76° to 77° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture62%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 27, 2026?

76° to 77° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE36%0 pts since publication
Kalshi65%+3 pts since publication
Gap−29

RESEARCH PBE Oct 26 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “76° to 77°” from 25% to 36% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 26 11:00Z → Oct 26 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 26 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 26 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 26 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 26 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “76° to 77°” from 25% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 75°F to 76°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
National Blend of Models forecast high75°F76°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 26 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“76° to 77°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26 14:00ZOct 26 15:30ZOct 26 17:00Z25%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 26 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 26 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 26 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 26 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 26 14:04ZKalshi mid47
Oct 26 14:06ZKalshi mid50
Oct 26 14:08ZKalshi mid50
Oct 26 14:10ZKalshi mid50
Oct 26 14:12ZKalshi mid49
Oct 26 14:14ZKalshi mid47
Oct 26 14:16ZKalshi mid48
Oct 26 14:18ZKalshi mid48
Oct 26 14:30ZKalshi mid48
Oct 26 14:38ZKalshi mid49
Oct 26 15:00ZKalshi mid49
Oct 26 15:02ZKalshi mid49
Oct 26 15:16ZKalshi mid49
Oct 26 15:48ZKalshi mid51
Oct 26 15:50ZKalshi mid52
Oct 26 15:52ZKalshi mid57
Oct 26 15:54ZKalshi mid56
Oct 26 15:56ZKalshi mid55
Oct 26 16:01ZKalshi mid60
Oct 26 16:04ZKalshi mid60
Oct 26 16:14ZKalshi mid60
Oct 26 16:42ZKalshi mid62
Oct 26 16:44ZKalshi mid62
Oct 26 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Oct 26 17:00ZKalshi mid62

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 26 14:00ZOct 26 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 26 11:00ZOct 26 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T12Z
PBE25%36%
Market at capture—62%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

76° to 77°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c91ad87b-7f25-4840-9013-b323a1581849
Compared with
4d08ef61-98a7-4764-8db1-0b56fa56aea9
Captured
Oct 26 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 26 17:00Z
Market observation
62% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-27, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 27, 2026, is between 76-77° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.