PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 28, 2026: PBE moves “71° to 72°” down to 16% from 26%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 27. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 27 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

26%16%

71° to 72° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture6%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 28, 2026?

71° to 72° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE16%0 pts since publication
Kalshi9%+3 pts since publication
Gap+7

RESEARCH PBE Oct 27 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “71° to 72°” from 26% to 16% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 27 11:00Z → Oct 27 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 27 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 27 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 27 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 27 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “71° to 72°” from 26% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 74°F to 73°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 73°F to 74°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
GFS MOS forecast high74°F73°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high73°F74°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 27 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“71° to 72°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 27 14:00ZOct 27 15:30ZOct 27 17:00Z26%16%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 27 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 27 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 27 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 27 14:08ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:13ZKalshi mid11
Oct 27 14:14ZKalshi mid10
Oct 27 14:16ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:18ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:20ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:44ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 15:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 16:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 16:16ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 16:20ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 16:30ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 16:34ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 27 17:00ZKalshi mid6

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 27 14:00ZOct 27 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 27 11:00ZOct 27 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T12Z
PBE26%16%
Market at capture—6%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

71° to 72°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c28814de-c441-4ab6-981b-825247fb21ce
Compared with
fb6969ff-5ca5-4d7b-875f-dd6e8afa88c3
Captured
Oct 27 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 27 17:00Z
Market observation
6% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-28, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 28, 2026, is between 71-72° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.