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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 28, 2026: PBE moves “71° to 72°” up to 26% from 16%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 28. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 28 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

16%26%

71° to 72° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture6%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 28, 2026?

71° to 72° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE26%0 pts since publication
Kalshi6%0 pts since publication
Gap+20

RESEARCH PBE Oct 28 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “71° to 72°” from 16% to 26% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 27 23:00Z → Oct 28 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 6%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 27 23:00Z (data cutoff Oct 27 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 28 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 28 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “71° to 72°” from 16% to 26%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 74°F to 76°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 74°F to 73°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time14h8h—
GFS MOS forecast high74°F76°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high74°F73°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 28 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“71° to 72°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 27 14:00ZOct 27 21:30ZOct 28 05:00Z16%26%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 27 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 27 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 28 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 28 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 27 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 27 14:08ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:13ZKalshi mid11
Oct 27 14:14ZKalshi mid10
Oct 27 14:16ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:18ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:20ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 14:44ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 15:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 16:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 16:16ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 16:20ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 16:30ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 16:34ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 27 17:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 17:28ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 18:01ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 18:08ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 18:28ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 18:30ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 19:04ZKalshi mid9
Oct 27 19:10ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 19:26ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 19:28ZKalshi mid8
Oct 27 19:32ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 20:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 21:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 22:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 27 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 27 23:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 23:14ZKalshi mid6
Oct 27 23:16ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 00:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 00:02ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 00:48ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 01:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 01:12ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 01:36ZKalshi mid7
Oct 28 01:38ZKalshi mid7
Oct 28 02:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 28 02:46ZKalshi mid7
Oct 28 03:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 28 03:06ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 03:20ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 03:32ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 04:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 28 04:04ZKalshi mid5
Oct 28 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.026
Oct 28 05:00ZKalshi mid6

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 6%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 27 23:00ZOct 28 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 27 23:00ZOct 28 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-28T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-28T00Z
PBE16%26%
Market at capture6%6%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

71° to 72°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
1f561d42-b6a0-4e85-84d9-ddc584c5c7d8
Compared with
3fed5014-6748-4f2e-8c5d-b155c9125a84
Captured
Oct 28 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 28 05:00Z
Market observation
6% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-28, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 28, 2026, is between 71-72° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.