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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 31, 2026: PBE moves “71° or above” up to 41% from 25%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 30. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 30 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

25%41%

71° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+16 pts
Market at capture71%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 31, 2026?

71° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE41%0 pts since publication
Kalshi72%+1 pts since publication
Gap−31

RESEARCH PBE Oct 30 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “71° or above” from 25% to 41% (+16 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 30 11:00Z → Oct 30 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 30 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 30 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 30 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 30 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “71° or above” from 25% to 41%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 69°F to 70°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
National Blend of Models forecast high69°F70°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 30 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“71° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30 14:00ZOct 30 15:30ZOct 30 17:00Z25%41%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 30 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 30 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 30 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 30 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.025
Oct 30 14:04ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 14:06ZKalshi mid64
Oct 30 14:08ZKalshi mid63
Oct 30 14:10ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 14:12ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 14:16ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 14:18ZKalshi mid63
Oct 30 14:24ZKalshi mid61
Oct 30 14:28ZKalshi mid58
Oct 30 14:30ZKalshi mid56
Oct 30 14:32ZKalshi mid56
Oct 30 14:36ZKalshi mid58
Oct 30 14:38ZKalshi mid57
Oct 30 15:00ZKalshi mid57
Oct 30 15:02ZKalshi mid57
Oct 30 15:06ZKalshi mid59
Oct 30 15:10ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 15:16ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 15:18ZKalshi mid64
Oct 30 15:20ZKalshi mid64
Oct 30 15:24ZKalshi mid65
Oct 30 15:36ZKalshi mid67
Oct 30 15:38ZKalshi mid68
Oct 30 15:40ZKalshi mid68
Oct 30 15:42ZKalshi mid69
Oct 30 15:54ZKalshi mid71
Oct 30 15:56ZKalshi mid72
Oct 30 16:00ZKalshi mid74
Oct 30 16:06ZKalshi mid74
Oct 30 16:10ZKalshi mid75
Oct 30 16:16ZKalshi mid75
Oct 30 16:36ZKalshi mid73
Oct 30 16:40ZKalshi mid74
Oct 30 16:44ZKalshi mid71
Oct 30 16:46ZKalshi mid71
Oct 30 16:48ZKalshi mid71
Oct 30 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.041
Oct 30 17:00ZKalshi mid71

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 30 14:00ZOct 30 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 30 11:00ZOct 30 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T12Z
PBE25%41%
Market at capture—71%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

71° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
4f0dcbeb-3b55-406a-a0eb-92944a93dba3
Compared with
47a770e5-d03a-4462-8300-8d11d84b0eff
Captured
Oct 30 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 30 17:00Z
Market observation
71% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-31, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 31, 2026, is greater than 70° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.