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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 6, 2026: PBE moves “91° or below” up to 75% from 59%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 5 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

59%75%

91° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+16 pts
Market at capture13%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 6, 2026?

91° or below · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday1%−74 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 93.9°F · latest 73.4°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 6 22:19Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 5 23:01Z PBE 25% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 6 17:04Z PBE 85% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 17:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 6 18:19Z PBE 1% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 18:19Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “91° or below” from 59% to 75% (+16 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 5 11:00Z → Oct 5 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 5 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 5 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 5 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “91° or below” from 59% to 75%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 87°F to 92°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 91°F to 90°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
GFS MOS forecast high87°F92°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high91°F90°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 5 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“91° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5 14:00ZOct 5 15:30ZOct 5 17:00Z59%75%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 59% · Oct 5 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 75% · Oct 5 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 5 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 5 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.059
Oct 5 14:02ZKalshi mid10
Oct 5 14:04ZKalshi mid14
Oct 5 14:06ZKalshi mid17
Oct 5 14:08ZKalshi mid25
Oct 5 14:10ZKalshi mid26
Oct 5 14:14ZKalshi mid26
Oct 5 14:16ZKalshi mid26
Oct 5 14:18ZKalshi mid25
Oct 5 14:24ZKalshi mid25
Oct 5 14:32ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 14:44ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 14:56ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 15:01ZKalshi mid25
Oct 5 15:02ZKalshi mid25
Oct 5 15:08ZKalshi mid25
Oct 5 15:16ZKalshi mid25
Oct 5 15:48ZKalshi mid21
Oct 5 15:50ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 16:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 16:06ZKalshi mid21
Oct 5 16:10ZKalshi mid21
Oct 5 16:14ZKalshi mid19
Oct 5 16:30ZKalshi mid13
Oct 5 16:34ZKalshi mid13
Oct 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.075
Oct 5 17:00ZKalshi mid13

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 5 14:00ZOct 5 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 5 11:00ZOct 5 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T12Z
PBE59%75%
Market at capture—13%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

91° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
f1ef0296-0912-4533-9fde-b4a175359aa6
Compared with
009027b9-39ab-4e3d-8386-6fc00567b34a
Captured
Oct 5 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 5 17:00Z
Market observation
13% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 6, 2026, is less than 92° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.