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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 7, 2026: PBE moves “91° or above” down to 5% from 41%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 6 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

41%5%

91° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−36 pts
Market at capture36%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 7, 2026?

91° or above · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday2%−3 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 86.0°F · latest 71.6°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 7 22:19Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 6 23:01Z PBE 60% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 7 18:09Z PBE 9% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 17:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “91° or above” from 41% to 5% (−36 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 6 11:00Z → Oct 6 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 6 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 6 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 6 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 6 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “91° or above” from 41% to 5%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 84°F to 87°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 90°F to 86°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
GFS MOS forecast high84°F87°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high90°F86°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 6 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“91° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 6 14:02ZOct 6 15:31ZOct 6 17:00Z41%5%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 6 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 5% · Oct 6 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 6 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.041
Oct 6 14:06ZKalshi mid21
Oct 6 14:08ZKalshi mid21
Oct 6 14:32ZKalshi mid23
Oct 6 14:34ZKalshi mid23
Oct 6 14:40ZKalshi mid24
Oct 6 14:46ZKalshi mid23
Oct 6 14:52ZKalshi mid24
Oct 6 14:54ZKalshi mid26
Oct 6 14:56ZKalshi mid26
Oct 6 14:58ZKalshi mid27
Oct 6 15:00ZKalshi mid27
Oct 6 15:04ZKalshi mid27
Oct 6 15:08ZKalshi mid28
Oct 6 15:12ZKalshi mid30
Oct 6 15:16ZKalshi mid30
Oct 6 15:20ZKalshi mid28
Oct 6 15:38ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 15:40ZKalshi mid34
Oct 6 15:42ZKalshi mid34
Oct 6 15:46ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 15:48ZKalshi mid32
Oct 6 15:50ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 15:54ZKalshi mid32
Oct 6 15:56ZKalshi mid32
Oct 6 15:58ZKalshi mid32
Oct 6 16:00ZKalshi mid32
Oct 6 16:04ZKalshi mid31
Oct 6 16:10ZKalshi mid34
Oct 6 16:34ZKalshi mid34
Oct 6 16:40ZKalshi mid34
Oct 6 16:46ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 16:50ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.05
Oct 6 17:00ZKalshi mid36

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 6 14:02ZOct 6 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 6 11:00ZOct 6 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-06T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-06T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-06T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-06T12Z
PBE41%5%
Market at capture—36%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

91° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
62a84b82-dd0a-4427-aa3c-a9d0e0687955
Compared with
cbe55f24-3650-4ebb-a78c-37871ec1b4f7
Captured
Oct 6 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 6 17:00Z
Market observation
36% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-07, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 7, 2026, is greater than 90° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.