PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engine PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Get All Access
Los Angeles — photograph (Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 8, 2026: PBE moves “87° to 88°” down to 16% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 7 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%16%

87° to 88° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−20 pts
Market at capture9%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 8, 2026?

87° to 88° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday2%−14 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 80.6°F · latest 69.8°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 8 22:19Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 7 23:01Z PBE 36% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 8 05:01Z PBE 25% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 05:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 8 17:04Z PBE 11% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 17:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “87° to 88°” from 36% to 16% (−20 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 7 11:00Z → Oct 7 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 10% to 9%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 7 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 7 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 7 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 7 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “87° to 88°” from 36% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 2°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 85°F to 84°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 87°F to 85°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time26h20h—
National Blend spread3°F2°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high85°F84°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high87°F85°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 7 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“87° to 88°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 7 14:02ZOct 7 15:31ZOct 7 17:00Z36%16%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 7 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 7 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 7 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 7 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Oct 7 14:02ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 14:04ZKalshi mid8
Oct 7 14:08ZKalshi mid8
Oct 7 14:12ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 14:54ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 15:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 15:06ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 15:08ZKalshi mid13
Oct 7 15:10ZKalshi mid14
Oct 7 15:16ZKalshi mid11
Oct 7 15:18ZKalshi mid11
Oct 7 15:46ZKalshi mid12
Oct 7 15:50ZKalshi mid12
Oct 7 15:54ZKalshi mid11
Oct 7 15:58ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 16:00ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 16:08ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 16:18ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 16:20ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 16:22ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 16:34ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 16:44ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 16:54ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 16:58ZKalshi mid9
Oct 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.016
Oct 7 17:00ZKalshi mid9

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 10% to 9%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 7 14:02ZOct 7 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 7 11:00ZOct 7 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T12Z
PBE36%16%
Market at capture10%9%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

87° to 88°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
5778ccd6-fc18-4b44-95a5-e44f5d2cae79
Compared with
64b4ad2b-0ec5-4829-8cab-707fd25a0d7e
Captured
Oct 7 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 7 17:00Z
Market observation
9% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 8, 2026, is between 87-88° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.