WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 9, 2026: PBE moves “81° to 82°” down to 25% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 8. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 8, 2026 at 17:04 UTCModel data as of Oct 8 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Alek Leckszas · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%25%

81° to 82° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−11 pts

Market at capture11%

Inputs changed1primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 9, 2026?

81° to 82° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday3%−22 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KLAX: high so far 77.0°F · latest 71.6°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 22:19Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 8 23:00Z PBE 36% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 23:00Z
UPDATE · Oct 9 11:09Z PBE 21% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 11:00Z
UPDATE · Oct 9 17:14Z PBE 11% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 17:00Z
UPDATE · Oct 9 17:19Z PBE 23% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 17:19Z
UPDATE · Oct 9 18:04Z PBE 12% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 17:19Z
UPDATE · Oct 9 19:19Z PBE 25% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 19:19Z
UPDATE · Oct 9 20:24Z PBE 12% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 20:24Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “81° to 82°” from 36% to 25% (−11 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 8 11:00Z → Oct 8 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 8 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 8 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 8 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 8 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “81° to 82°” from 36% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 81°F to 80°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	26h	20h	—
National Blend of Models forecast high	81°F	80°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“81° to 82°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 8 14:02Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	36
Oct 8 14:08Z	Kalshi mid	16
Oct 8 14:10Z	Kalshi mid	16
Oct 8 14:12Z	Kalshi mid	14
Oct 8 14:14Z	Kalshi mid	13
Oct 8 14:16Z	Kalshi mid	15
Oct 8 14:18Z	Kalshi mid	13
Oct 8 14:20Z	Kalshi mid	14
Oct 8 14:22Z	Kalshi mid	14
Oct 8 14:24Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 14:26Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 8 14:28Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 14:32Z	Kalshi mid	14
Oct 8 14:34Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 8 14:36Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 14:44Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 8 14:48Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 14:52Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 15:04Z	Kalshi mid	13
Oct 8 15:32Z	Kalshi mid	13
Oct 8 15:40Z	Kalshi mid	13
Oct 8 15:42Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 15:44Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 15:54Z	Kalshi mid	13
Oct 8 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	12
Oct 8 16:04Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 8 16:14Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 8 16:28Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 8 16:30Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 8 16:40Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 8 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	25
Oct 8 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	11

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 8 14:02Z	Oct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoff	Oct 8 11:00Z	Oct 8 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T12Z
PBE	36%	25%
Market at capture	—	11%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

81° to 82°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 89740e54-68fc-4bda-8db2-61d87b271e6e
Compared with: 30db7940-98d6-48cb-8d49-2c115c5e53af
Captured: Oct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoff: Oct 8 17:00Z
Market observation: 11% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLILAX (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX (WFO LOX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023174
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-09, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Oct 9, 2026, is between 81-82° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.