WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 10, 2026: PBE moves “86° to 87°” up to 32% from 13%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 15:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published November 9, 2026 at 20:18 UTCModel data as of Nov 9 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

13%32%

86° to 87° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 15:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+19 pts

Market at capture21%

Inputs changed1primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 10, 2026?

86° to 87° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication

Kalshi30%+9 pts since publication

Gap+2

RESEARCH PBE Nov 9 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “86° to 87°” from 13% to 32% (+19 pts).
Later data cutoff: Nov 9 11:00Z → Nov 9 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 15:00Z (data cutoff Nov 9 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 9 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 9 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “86° to 87°” from 13% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 84°F to 85°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	23h	17h	—
National Blend of Models forecast high	84°F	85°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Nov 9 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“86° to 87°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 9 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Nov 9 15:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	13
Nov 9 15:04Z	Kalshi mid	24
Nov 9 15:06Z	Kalshi mid	22
Nov 9 15:10Z	Kalshi mid	22
Nov 9 15:16Z	Kalshi mid	22
Nov 9 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	21
Nov 9 16:02Z	Kalshi mid	17
Nov 9 16:12Z	Kalshi mid	17
Nov 9 16:14Z	Kalshi mid	20
Nov 9 16:18Z	Kalshi mid	20
Nov 9 16:20Z	Kalshi mid	19
Nov 9 16:28Z	Kalshi mid	17
Nov 9 16:30Z	Kalshi mid	16
Nov 9 16:32Z	Kalshi mid	16
Nov 9 16:36Z	Kalshi mid	21
Nov 9 16:46Z	Kalshi mid	21
Nov 9 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Nov 9 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	21

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Nov 9 15:00Z	Nov 9 17:00Z
Data cutoff	Nov 9 11:00Z	Nov 9 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T12Z
PBE	13%	32%
Market at capture	—	21%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

86° to 87°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: def87835-75b9-4939-b72b-5e6444e24a18
Compared with: b99392c7-5c8b-4946-bfe7-136d90d2eb35
Captured: Nov 9 17:00Z
Data cutoff: Nov 9 17:00Z
Market observation: 21% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Nov 10, 2026, is between 86-87° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.