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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 2, 2026: PBE moves “80° to 81°” down to 24% from 50%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:06 UTC on Nov 1. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 1 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

50%24%

80° to 81° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:06 UTC

Move−26 pts
Market at capture56%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 2, 2026?

80° to 81° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE24%0 pts since publication
Kalshi56%+4 pts since publication
Gap−32

RESEARCH PBE Nov 1 23:06Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “80° to 81°” from 50% to 24% (−26 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 1 17:00Z → Nov 1 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 56%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 1 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 1 23:06Z (cutoff Nov 1 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “80° to 81°” from 50% to 24%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 83°F to 81°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 81°F to 82°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
GFS MOS forecast high83°F81°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high81°F82°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 1 23:06ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“80° to 81°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 15:02ZNov 1 19:04ZNov 1 23:06Z50%24%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 1 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 1 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 1 23:06Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 1 23:06ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Nov 1 15:02ZKalshi mid45
Nov 1 15:04ZKalshi mid45
Nov 1 15:20ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 15:22ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 15:38ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 15:46ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 15:48ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 15:50ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 16:02ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 16:08ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 16:16ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 16:18ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:26ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:28ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:34ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 16:36ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:42ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.050
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 17:44ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 18:08ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 18:18ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 18:26ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 18:28ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 18:52ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 19:04ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 19:06ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 19:12ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 19:14ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 19:28ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 19:44ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 20:02ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 21:38ZKalshi mid55
Nov 1 21:50ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 21:54ZKalshi mid55
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 22:24ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 22:26ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 22:34ZKalshi mid57
Nov 1 22:38ZKalshi mid57
Nov 1 22:52ZKalshi mid57
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid57
Nov 1 23:06ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Nov 1 23:06ZKalshi mid56

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 56%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 1 17:00ZNov 1 23:06Z
Data cutoffNov 1 17:00ZNov 1 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T18Z
PBE50%24%
Market at capture52%56%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

80° to 81°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c9eb6715-17c3-473f-8211-f1de608a5af3
Compared with
55ef9a58-fbbf-48b2-9ac2-d47e1cecb325
Captured
Nov 1 23:06Z
Data cutoff
Nov 1 23:00Z
Market observation
56% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-02, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Nov 2, 2026, is between 80-81° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.