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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 3, 2026: PBE moves “83° to 84°” down to 24% from 50%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 15:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 2 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

50%24%

83° to 84° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 15:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−26 pts
Market at capture19%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 3, 2026?

83° to 84° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE24%0 pts since publication
Kalshi20%+1 pts since publication
Gap+4

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “83° to 84°” from 50% to 24% (−26 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 2 11:00Z → Nov 2 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 15:00Z (data cutoff Nov 2 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 2 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 2 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “83° to 84°” from 50% to 24%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 84°F to 85°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
National Blend of Models forecast high84°F85°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“83° to 84°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 2 15:00ZNov 2 16:00ZNov 2 17:00Z50%24%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 2 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 2 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 2 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.050
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 15:08ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 15:10ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 15:14ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 15:18ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 15:26ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 15:28ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid22
Nov 2 15:34ZKalshi mid22
Nov 2 15:38ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 16:02ZKalshi mid25
Nov 2 16:48ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 16:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 16:58ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid19

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 2 15:00ZNov 2 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 2 11:00ZNov 2 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T12Z
PBE50%24%
Market at capture—19%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

83° to 84°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
fd610e73-efa3-4545-85bd-befabd7a107b
Compared with
0116b50d-798f-4049-ab8c-c4b9695a7896
Captured
Nov 2 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 2 17:00Z
Market observation
19% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-03, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Nov 3, 2026, is between 83-84° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.