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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 10, 2026: PBE moves “89° to 90°” down to 24% from 50%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:01 UTC on Oct 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 9 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

50%24%

89° to 90° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:01 UTC

Move−26 pts
Market at capture31%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 10, 2026?

89° to 90° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE24%0 pts since publication
Kalshi27%−4 pts since publication
Gap−3

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 23:01Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “89° to 90°” from 50% to 24% (−26 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 9 11:00Z → Oct 9 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 9 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 9 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 9 17:01Z (cutoff Oct 9 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “89° to 90°” from 50% to 24%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 90°F to 91°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
National Blend of Models forecast high90°F91°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 9 17:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“89° to 90°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 9 14:02ZOct 9 15:31ZOct 9 17:01Z50%24%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Oct 9 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 9 17:01Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 9 17:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 9 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.050
Oct 9 14:07ZKalshi mid36
Oct 9 14:08ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 14:13ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 14:25ZKalshi mid36
Oct 9 14:31ZKalshi mid37
Oct 9 14:37ZKalshi mid37
Oct 9 14:39ZKalshi mid36
Oct 9 14:47ZKalshi mid38
Oct 9 14:59ZKalshi mid39
Oct 9 15:02ZKalshi mid37
Oct 9 15:05ZKalshi mid37
Oct 9 15:13ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 15:15ZKalshi mid35
Oct 9 15:17ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 15:18ZKalshi mid33
Oct 9 15:25ZKalshi mid33
Oct 9 15:31ZKalshi mid37
Oct 9 15:35ZKalshi mid36
Oct 9 15:37ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 15:39ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 15:43ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 15:45ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 15:47ZKalshi mid33
Oct 9 15:51ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 15:53ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 15:55ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 15:57ZKalshi mid33
Oct 9 15:59ZKalshi mid33
Oct 9 16:01ZKalshi mid33
Oct 9 16:09ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 16:11ZKalshi mid33
Oct 9 16:17ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 16:35ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 16:43ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 16:45ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 16:49ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 17:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Oct 9 17:01ZKalshi mid31

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 9 14:02ZOct 9 17:01Z
Data cutoffOct 9 11:00ZOct 9 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T12Z
PBE50%24%
Market at capture—31%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

89° to 90°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
f6947c2d-63ae-4bd7-ab54-9d2a1d5d1d9d
Compared with
8616f553-3fb7-4931-8880-d0332542c6eb
Captured
Oct 9 17:01Z
Data cutoff
Oct 9 17:00Z
Market observation
31% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Oct 10, 2026, is between 89-90° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.