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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 13, 2026: PBE moves “87° to 88°” up to 50% from 24%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 12 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

24%50%

87° to 88° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+26 pts
Market at capture32%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 13, 2026?

87° to 88° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE50%0 pts since publication
Kalshi27%−5 pts since publication
Gap+23

RESEARCH PBE Oct 12 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “87° to 88°” from 24% to 50% (+26 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 12 11:00Z → Oct 12 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 12 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 12 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 12 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 12 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “87° to 88°” from 24% to 50%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 88°F to 89°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 89°F to 88°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
GFS MOS forecast high88°F89°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high89°F88°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“87° to 88°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 12 14:00ZOct 12 15:30ZOct 12 17:00Z24%50%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Oct 12 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Oct 12 14:06ZKalshi mid27
Oct 12 14:08ZKalshi mid22
Oct 12 14:10ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 14:12ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 14:14ZKalshi mid22
Oct 12 14:16ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 14:20ZKalshi mid24
Oct 12 14:36ZKalshi mid25
Oct 12 14:52ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 14:54ZKalshi mid24
Oct 12 14:56ZKalshi mid25
Oct 12 15:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 15:02ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 15:04ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 15:18ZKalshi mid21
Oct 12 15:26ZKalshi mid21
Oct 12 15:28ZKalshi mid21
Oct 12 16:01ZKalshi mid21
Oct 12 16:02ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 16:04ZKalshi mid24
Oct 12 16:06ZKalshi mid25
Oct 12 16:08ZKalshi mid27
Oct 12 16:10ZKalshi mid27
Oct 12 16:16ZKalshi mid28
Oct 12 16:18ZKalshi mid28
Oct 12 16:20ZKalshi mid28
Oct 12 16:22ZKalshi mid32
Oct 12 16:24ZKalshi mid33
Oct 12 16:42ZKalshi mid33
Oct 12 16:50ZKalshi mid32
Oct 12 16:58ZKalshi mid32
Oct 12 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.050
Oct 12 17:00ZKalshi mid32

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 12 14:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 12 11:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T12Z
PBE24%50%
Market at capture—32%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

87° to 88°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
0a7aa3b5-2489-4b34-8c02-10fa8c7badc0
Compared with
4b76fc7d-7a41-48e9-a17e-4d1935bb1eaa
Captured
Oct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 12 17:00Z
Market observation
32% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-13, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Oct 13, 2026, is between 87-88° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.