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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 19, 2026: PBE moves “83° to 84°” up to 50% from 24%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 18. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 18 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

24%50%

83° to 84° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+26 pts
Market at capture13%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 19, 2026?

83° to 84° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE50%0 pts since publication
Kalshi12%−1 pts since publication
Gap+38

RESEARCH PBE Oct 18 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “83° to 84°” from 24% to 50% (+26 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 18 11:00Z → Oct 18 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 18 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 18 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 18 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 18 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “83° to 84°” from 24% to 50%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 85°F to 84°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
National Blend of Models forecast high85°F84°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 18 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“83° to 84°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 18 14:00ZOct 18 15:30ZOct 18 17:00Z24%50%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 18 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Oct 18 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 18 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 18 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Oct 18 14:08ZKalshi mid13
Oct 18 14:10ZKalshi mid11
Oct 18 14:12ZKalshi mid11
Oct 18 14:16ZKalshi mid8
Oct 18 14:18ZKalshi mid9
Oct 18 15:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 18 15:24ZKalshi mid10
Oct 18 15:38ZKalshi mid10
Oct 18 15:56ZKalshi mid11
Oct 18 16:00ZKalshi mid11
Oct 18 16:02ZKalshi mid10
Oct 18 16:06ZKalshi mid10
Oct 18 16:10ZKalshi mid13
Oct 18 16:14ZKalshi mid13
Oct 18 16:16ZKalshi mid14
Oct 18 16:22ZKalshi mid14
Oct 18 16:36ZKalshi mid14
Oct 18 16:46ZKalshi mid12
Oct 18 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.050
Oct 18 17:00ZKalshi mid13

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 18 14:00ZOct 18 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 18 11:00ZOct 18 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-18T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-18T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-18T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-18T12Z
PBE24%50%
Market at capture—13%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

83° to 84°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
e0619173-a06c-4454-818f-cdae8da32576
Compared with
3002ba91-7f17-4edb-90d8-fecf686fe572
Captured
Oct 18 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 18 17:00Z
Market observation
13% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-19, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Oct 19, 2026, is between 83-84° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.