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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 21, 2026: PBE moves “87° to 88°” up to 32% from 13%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 20. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 20 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

13%32%

87° to 88° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+19 pts
Market at capture11%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 21, 2026?

87° to 88° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication
Kalshi14%+3 pts since publication
Gap+18

RESEARCH PBE Oct 20 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “87° to 88°” from 13% to 32% (+19 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 20 11:00Z → Oct 20 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 20 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 20 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 20 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 20 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “87° to 88°” from 13% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 85°F to 86°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
National Blend of Models forecast high85°F86°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 20 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“87° to 88°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 20 14:02ZOct 20 15:31ZOct 20 17:00Z13%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 13% · Oct 20 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 20 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 20 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 20 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.013
Oct 20 14:06ZKalshi mid14
Oct 20 14:08ZKalshi mid14
Oct 20 14:10ZKalshi mid13
Oct 20 14:22ZKalshi mid11
Oct 20 14:24ZKalshi mid11
Oct 20 14:32ZKalshi mid11
Oct 20 14:38ZKalshi mid11
Oct 20 15:00ZKalshi mid11
Oct 20 15:08ZKalshi mid10
Oct 20 15:58ZKalshi mid14
Oct 20 16:00ZKalshi mid14
Oct 20 16:02ZKalshi mid13
Oct 20 16:04ZKalshi mid13
Oct 20 16:08ZKalshi mid12
Oct 20 16:38ZKalshi mid11
Oct 20 16:40ZKalshi mid10
Oct 20 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 20 17:00ZKalshi mid11

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 20 14:02ZOct 20 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 20 11:00ZOct 20 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-20T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-20T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-20T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-20T12Z
PBE13%32%
Market at capture—11%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

87° to 88°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
1840edf7-8b83-490e-9af2-9ea021b57db0
Compared with
2ca32a0b-4b2a-4cff-93e0-7c6da08ce1a9
Captured
Oct 20 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 20 17:00Z
Market observation
11% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-21, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Oct 21, 2026, is between 87-88° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.