Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 27, 2026: PBE moves “85° to 86°” up to 32% from 13%
New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 26. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
85° to 86° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC
Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 27, 2026?
85° to 86° · PRE-WINDOW
Quick read
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “85° to 86°” from 13% to 32% (+19 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Oct 26 11:00Z → Oct 26 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
- A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Oct 26 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 26 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 26 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 26 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “85° to 86°” from 13% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 83°F to 84°F.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance lead time | 23h | 17h | — |
| National Blend of Models forecast high | 83°F | 84°F | yes |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 14:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 13 |
| Oct 26 14:10Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 26 14:12Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 26 14:14Z | Kalshi mid | 3 |
| Oct 26 15:00Z | Kalshi mid | 3 |
| Oct 26 16:01Z | Kalshi mid | 3 |
| Oct 26 17:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 32 |
| Oct 26 17:00Z | Kalshi mid | 3 |
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Oct 26 14:00Z | Oct 26 17:00Z |
| Data cutoff | Oct 26 11:00Z | Oct 26 17:00Z |
| Guidance runs | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T06Z | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T12Z |
| PBE | 13% | 32% |
| Market at capture | — | 3% |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- 93d892b1-eb85-40ca-8ea5-607fb5d9b738
- Compared with
- 7c30d180-53be-4674-a961-07451e182b89
- Captured
- Oct 26 17:00Z
- Data cutoff
- Oct 26 17:00Z
- Market observation
- 3% · captured with the snapshot
- Source families
- NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
- Measurement
- Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-27, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
- Rounding
- Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
- Exceptions
- Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
- Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
- Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)
Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.