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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “88° to 89°” up to 32% from 13%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 29. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 29 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

13%32%

88° to 89° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+19 pts
Market at capture19%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 30, 2026?

88° to 89° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication
Kalshi24%+5 pts since publication
Gap+8

RESEARCH PBE Oct 29 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “88° to 89°” from 13% to 32% (+19 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 29 11:00Z → Oct 29 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 29 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 29 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 29 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 29 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “88° to 89°” from 13% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 86°F to 87°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 86°F to 87°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
GFS MOS forecast high86°F87°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high86°F87°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 29 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“88° to 89°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 29 14:00ZOct 29 15:30ZOct 29 17:00Z13%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 13% · Oct 29 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 29 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 29 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 29 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.013
Oct 29 14:02ZKalshi mid23
Oct 29 14:04ZKalshi mid28
Oct 29 14:06ZKalshi mid27
Oct 29 14:10ZKalshi mid25
Oct 29 14:24ZKalshi mid25
Oct 29 14:30ZKalshi mid23
Oct 29 14:46ZKalshi mid19
Oct 29 14:48ZKalshi mid22
Oct 29 14:50ZKalshi mid22
Oct 29 15:00ZKalshi mid22
Oct 29 15:34ZKalshi mid19
Oct 29 15:36ZKalshi mid18
Oct 29 15:46ZKalshi mid18
Oct 29 16:00ZKalshi mid18
Oct 29 16:26ZKalshi mid16
Oct 29 16:30ZKalshi mid16
Oct 29 16:36ZKalshi mid17
Oct 29 16:38ZKalshi mid19
Oct 29 16:48ZKalshi mid19
Oct 29 16:54ZKalshi mid19
Oct 29 16:56ZKalshi mid19
Oct 29 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 29 17:00ZKalshi mid19

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 29 14:00ZOct 29 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 29 11:00ZOct 29 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T12Z
PBE13%32%
Market at capture—19%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

88° to 89°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b7e11e03-8c93-4702-8293-e0aa81ab6ba3
Compared with
2743ce6d-7620-4739-ae4c-5ee1dffbbf58
Captured
Oct 29 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 29 17:00Z
Market observation
19% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-30, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Oct 30, 2026, is between 88-89° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.