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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 31, 2026: PBE moves “83° to 84°” up to 50% from 24%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 30. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 30 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

24%50%

83° to 84° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+26 pts
Market at capture21%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 31, 2026?

83° to 84° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE50%0 pts since publication
Kalshi20%−5 pts since publication
Gap+30

RESEARCH PBE Oct 30 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “83° to 84°” from 24% to 50% (+26 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 30 17:00Z → Oct 30 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 25% to 21%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 30 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 30 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 30 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 30 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “83° to 84°” from 24% to 50%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 85°F to 84°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
National Blend of Models forecast high85°F84°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 30 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“83° to 84°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30 14:02ZOct 30 18:31ZOct 30 23:00Z24%50%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 30 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 30 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Oct 30 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 30 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 30 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Oct 30 14:04ZKalshi mid35
Oct 30 14:08ZKalshi mid36
Oct 30 14:10ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 14:12ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 14:18ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 14:20ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 14:22ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 14:28ZKalshi mid27
Oct 30 14:30ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 15:00ZKalshi mid27
Oct 30 15:02ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 15:04ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 15:06ZKalshi mid27
Oct 30 15:16ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 15:18ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 15:20ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 15:38ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 15:54ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 16:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 16:14ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 16:22ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 16:24ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 16:30ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 16:36ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 16:38ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 16:40ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 16:42ZKalshi mid27
Oct 30 16:48ZKalshi mid27
Oct 30 16:50ZKalshi mid27
Oct 30 16:52ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 16:56ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 16:58ZKalshi mid26
Oct 30 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Oct 30 17:00ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 17:04ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 17:28ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 17:36ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 17:48ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 18:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 18:28ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 18:30ZKalshi mid25
Oct 30 18:42ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 19:00ZKalshi mid24
Oct 30 19:06ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 19:08ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 19:32ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 19:38ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 19:48ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 20:00ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 20:10ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 21:00ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 21:02ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 21:08ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 21:24ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 21:30ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 21:36ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 22:00ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 22:10ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 22:12ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 22:50ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.050
Oct 30 23:00ZKalshi mid21

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 25% to 21%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 30 17:00ZOct 30 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 30 17:00ZOct 30 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T18Z
PBE24%50%
Market at capture25%21%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

83° to 84°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
9c3e6bac-3110-4aa6-a89f-d9eeb6fc31e0
Compared with
d5793e0f-1b3e-443f-a0b1-7ded594ea78c
Captured
Oct 30 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 30 23:00Z
Market observation
21% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-31, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Oct 31, 2026, is between 83-84° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.