PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
New York City — photograph (Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 10, 2026: PBE moves “60° or below” up to 37% from 23%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 9 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

23%37%

60° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture25%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 10, 2026?

60° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE37%0 pts since publication
Kalshi26%−10 pts since publication
Gap+11

RESEARCH PBE Nov 9 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “60° or below” from 23% to 37% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 17:00Z → Nov 9 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 36% to 25%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 9 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 9 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 9 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “60° or below” from 23% to 37%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 63°F to 62°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 62°F to 61°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
GFS MOS forecast high63°F62°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high62°F61°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 9 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“60° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 9 15:02ZNov 9 19:01ZNov 9 23:00Z23%37%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 23% · Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 9 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 9 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 9 15:02ZKalshi mid32
Nov 9 15:04ZKalshi mid33
Nov 9 15:06ZKalshi mid33
Nov 9 15:08ZKalshi mid33
Nov 9 15:18ZKalshi mid33
Nov 9 15:28ZKalshi mid34
Nov 9 15:30ZKalshi mid34
Nov 9 15:32ZKalshi mid35
Nov 9 15:34ZKalshi mid34
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid34
Nov 9 16:02ZKalshi mid35
Nov 9 16:06ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 16:10ZKalshi mid37
Nov 9 16:12ZKalshi mid38
Nov 9 16:16ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 16:18ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 16:26ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 16:28ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 16:30ZKalshi mid35
Nov 9 16:34ZKalshi mid37
Nov 9 16:46ZKalshi mid37
Nov 9 16:48ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 16:50ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.023
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 17:02ZKalshi mid35
Nov 9 17:06ZKalshi mid35
Nov 9 17:08ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 17:16ZKalshi mid36
Nov 9 17:18ZKalshi mid35
Nov 9 17:34ZKalshi mid35
Nov 9 17:36ZKalshi mid34
Nov 9 17:44ZKalshi mid33
Nov 9 17:46ZKalshi mid31
Nov 9 17:48ZKalshi mid27
Nov 9 17:50ZKalshi mid27
Nov 9 17:52ZKalshi mid26
Nov 9 18:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 9 18:06ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 18:08ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 18:50ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 18:52ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 19:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 20:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 20:08ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 20:10ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 20:12ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 20:22ZKalshi mid24
Nov 9 20:24ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 20:26ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 20:30ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 20:32ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 20:40ZKalshi mid24
Nov 9 20:48ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 20:56ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 20:58ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 21:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 21:02ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 21:06ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 21:12ZKalshi mid24
Nov 9 21:44ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 21:46ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 22:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 22:04ZKalshi mid24
Nov 9 22:06ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 22:18ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 22:22ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 9 23:00ZKalshi mid25

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 36% to 25%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 17:00ZNov 9 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 9 17:00ZNov 9 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T18Z
PBE23%37%
Market at capture36%25%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

60° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
28e7a90e-0792-4c03-af6e-fd21aa38f0e5
Compared with
2b0ea785-d453-4a20-abe3-8391726602d5
Captured
Nov 9 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 9 23:00Z
Market observation
25% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 10, 2026, is less than 61° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.