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New York City — photograph (Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 12, 2026: PBE moves “58° or below” up to 53% from 37%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 11 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

37%53%

58° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+16 pts
Market at capture80%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 12, 2026?

58° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE53%0 pts since publication
Kalshi77%+3 pts since publication
Gap−24

RESEARCH PBE Nov 11 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “58° or below” from 37% to 53% (+16 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 11 17:00Z → Nov 11 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 74% to 80%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 11 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 11 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 11 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 11 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “58° or below” from 37% to 53%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 57°F to 58°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 59°F to 58°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
GFS MOS forecast high57°F58°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high59°F58°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 11 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“58° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 11 15:02ZNov 11 19:01ZNov 11 23:00Z37%53%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 11 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 11 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 53% · Nov 11 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 11 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 11 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 11 15:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 11 15:04ZKalshi mid68
Nov 11 15:06ZKalshi mid76
Nov 11 15:08ZKalshi mid75
Nov 11 15:10ZKalshi mid73
Nov 11 15:12ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 15:16ZKalshi mid73
Nov 11 15:26ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 16:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 16:02ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 16:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 16:12ZKalshi mid76
Nov 11 16:16ZKalshi mid75
Nov 11 16:26ZKalshi mid75
Nov 11 16:30ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 16:32ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 16:34ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 16:36ZKalshi mid73
Nov 11 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 11 17:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 17:06ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 17:08ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 18:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 18:02ZKalshi mid71
Nov 11 18:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 11 18:06ZKalshi mid68
Nov 11 18:08ZKalshi mid68
Nov 11 18:12ZKalshi mid69
Nov 11 18:14ZKalshi mid69
Nov 11 18:48ZKalshi mid69
Nov 11 18:50ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 18:56ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 19:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 19:10ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 19:28ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 19:34ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 19:50ZKalshi mid67
Nov 11 20:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 11 20:16ZKalshi mid68
Nov 11 20:24ZKalshi mid69
Nov 11 20:26ZKalshi mid69
Nov 11 20:38ZKalshi mid69
Nov 11 20:46ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 20:48ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 21:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 11 21:02ZKalshi mid71
Nov 11 21:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 11 21:06ZKalshi mid71
Nov 11 21:10ZKalshi mid71
Nov 11 21:12ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 21:14ZKalshi mid72
Nov 11 21:18ZKalshi mid73
Nov 11 21:22ZKalshi mid75
Nov 11 21:30ZKalshi mid77
Nov 11 21:32ZKalshi mid78
Nov 11 21:36ZKalshi mid78
Nov 11 22:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 11 22:10ZKalshi mid79
Nov 11 22:12ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 22:16ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 22:26ZKalshi mid79
Nov 11 22:46ZKalshi mid80
Nov 11 22:48ZKalshi mid80
Nov 11 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.053
Nov 11 23:00ZKalshi mid80

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 74% to 80%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 11 17:00ZNov 11 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 11 17:00ZNov 11 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T18Z
PBE37%53%
Market at capture74%80%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

58° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b7421d9b-d46f-4c30-a761-7ec20d00d915
Compared with
97a2674c-d5ac-465d-9a9b-d06a4d73174d
Captured
Nov 11 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 11 23:00Z
Market observation
80% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-12, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 12, 2026, is less than 59° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.