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New York City — photograph (Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 14, 2026: PBE moves “45° or below” up to 37% from 23%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 13. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 13 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

23%37%

45° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture31%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 14, 2026?

45° or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · pre-window, frozen Nov 13 23:00Z37%0 pts since publication
Kalshi30%−8 pts since publication
Gap+7

RESEARCH PBE Nov 13 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “45° or below” from 23% to 37% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 13 17:00Z → Nov 13 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 38% to 31%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 13 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 13 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 13 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 13 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “45° or below” from 23% to 37%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 2°F to 1°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 47°F to 46°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
National Blend spread2°F1°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high47°F46°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 13 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“45° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 13 15:02ZNov 13 19:01ZNov 13 23:00Z23%37%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 13 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 23% · Nov 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 13 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 13 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 13 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 13 15:02ZKalshi mid53
Nov 13 15:04ZKalshi mid53
Nov 13 15:06ZKalshi mid45
Nov 13 15:08ZKalshi mid45
Nov 13 15:12ZKalshi mid45
Nov 13 15:16ZKalshi mid45
Nov 13 15:18ZKalshi mid44
Nov 13 15:20ZKalshi mid44
Nov 13 15:22ZKalshi mid43
Nov 13 15:34ZKalshi mid43
Nov 13 15:48ZKalshi mid44
Nov 13 15:50ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 15:52ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 15:54ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 15:56ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 16:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 13 16:02ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 16:12ZKalshi mid41
Nov 13 16:18ZKalshi mid41
Nov 13 16:22ZKalshi mid41
Nov 13 16:28ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 16:34ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 16:36ZKalshi mid38
Nov 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.023
Nov 13 17:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 13 17:08ZKalshi mid35
Nov 13 17:10ZKalshi mid36
Nov 13 17:24ZKalshi mid38
Nov 13 17:28ZKalshi mid41
Nov 13 17:36ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 17:40ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 17:44ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 18:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 13 18:02ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 18:12ZKalshi mid41
Nov 13 18:24ZKalshi mid40
Nov 13 18:38ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 18:56ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 19:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 19:20ZKalshi mid39
Nov 13 19:40ZKalshi mid38
Nov 13 20:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 13 21:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 13 21:08ZKalshi mid37
Nov 13 21:12ZKalshi mid34
Nov 13 21:14ZKalshi mid34
Nov 13 21:16ZKalshi mid33
Nov 13 21:26ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 21:48ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 21:50ZKalshi mid29
Nov 13 22:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 13 22:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 22:06ZKalshi mid29
Nov 13 22:10ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 22:32ZKalshi mid31
Nov 13 22:36ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 13 23:00ZKalshi mid31

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 38% to 31%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 13 17:00ZNov 13 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 13 17:00ZNov 13 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T18Z
PBE23%37%
Market at capture38%31%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

45° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
6a6daef1-964d-4ffa-bde1-362c2ae0eded
Compared with
c8bc8575-164f-40fe-bf21-d21ddc6e1e1e
Captured
Nov 13 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 13 23:00Z
Market observation
31% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-14, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 14, 2026, is less than 46° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.