PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
New York City — photograph (Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 15, 2026: PBE moves “49° to 50°” up to 24% from 10%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 14. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 14 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

10%24%

49° to 50° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture63%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 15, 2026?

49° to 50° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday19%−5 pts since publication
Kalshi95%+39 pts since publication
Gap−76

At KNYC: high so far 48.9°F · latest 48.9°F () · DELAYED

RESEARCH PBE Nov 15 19:29Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 15 17:39Z PBE 12% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 17:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “49° to 50°” from 10% to 24% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 14 17:00Z → Nov 14 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 56% to 63%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 14 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 14 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 14 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 14 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “49° to 50°” from 10% to 24%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 53°F to 51°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
National Blend of Models forecast high53°F51°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 14 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“49° to 50°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 14 15:02ZNov 14 19:01ZNov 14 23:00Z10%24%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 14 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 10% · Nov 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 14 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 14 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 14 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.030
Nov 14 15:02ZKalshi mid48
Nov 14 15:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 14 15:06ZKalshi mid53
Nov 14 15:08ZKalshi mid52
Nov 14 15:12ZKalshi mid52
Nov 14 15:14ZKalshi mid53
Nov 14 15:22ZKalshi mid53
Nov 14 15:24ZKalshi mid53
Nov 14 15:28ZKalshi mid53
Nov 14 15:46ZKalshi mid54
Nov 14 15:48ZKalshi mid55
Nov 14 15:52ZKalshi mid55
Nov 14 16:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 14 16:02ZKalshi mid56
Nov 14 16:04ZKalshi mid56
Nov 14 16:06ZKalshi mid57
Nov 14 16:08ZKalshi mid59
Nov 14 16:12ZKalshi mid58
Nov 14 16:32ZKalshi mid57
Nov 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.010
Nov 14 17:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 14 17:06ZKalshi mid57
Nov 14 17:16ZKalshi mid58
Nov 14 17:18ZKalshi mid59
Nov 14 17:24ZKalshi mid58
Nov 14 17:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 14 17:36ZKalshi mid59
Nov 14 17:50ZKalshi mid59
Nov 14 17:56ZKalshi mid60
Nov 14 18:00ZKalshi mid60
Nov 14 19:00ZKalshi mid60
Nov 14 19:56ZKalshi mid61
Nov 14 20:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 14 20:06ZKalshi mid61
Nov 14 20:32ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 20:34ZKalshi mid63
Nov 14 20:40ZKalshi mid63
Nov 14 20:52ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 21:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 21:02ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 21:08ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 21:10ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 21:44ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 21:46ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 21:48ZKalshi mid63
Nov 14 22:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 14 22:38ZKalshi mid63
Nov 14 22:40ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 22:44ZKalshi mid62
Nov 14 22:50ZKalshi mid63
Nov 14 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Nov 14 23:00ZKalshi mid63

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 56% to 63%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 14 17:00ZNov 14 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 14 17:00ZNov 14 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T18Z
PBE10%24%
Market at capture56%63%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

49° to 50°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
7076fc07-df09-46da-b715-ce24cde519f4
Compared with
3ed9d857-ef9f-4032-9fdb-31cac16b794d
Captured
Nov 14 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 14 23:00Z
Market observation
63% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-15, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 15, 2026, is between 49-50° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.