PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
New York City — photograph (Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 6, 2026: PBE moves “66° or below” up to 53% from 23%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 5 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

23%53%

66° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+30 pts
Market at capture41%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 6, 2026?

66° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE53%0 pts since publication
Kalshi23%−24 pts since publication
Gap+30

RESEARCH PBE Nov 5 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “66° or below” from 23% to 53% (+30 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 5 17:00Z → Nov 5 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 47% to 41%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 5 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 5 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 5 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 5 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “66° or below” from 23% to 53%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 2°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 68°F to 66°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
National Blend spread3°F2°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high68°F66°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 5 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“66° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 5 15:02ZNov 5 19:01ZNov 5 23:00Z23%53%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 23% · Nov 5 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 23% · Nov 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 53% · Nov 5 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 5 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 5 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.023
Nov 5 15:04ZKalshi mid48
Nov 5 15:06ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 15:10ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 15:12ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 15:18ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 15:20ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 15:22ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 15:28ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 15:36ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 15:38ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 15:52ZKalshi mid45
Nov 5 15:54ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 16:00ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 16:02ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 16:04ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 16:06ZKalshi mid40
Nov 5 16:08ZKalshi mid40
Nov 5 16:12ZKalshi mid40
Nov 5 16:20ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 16:24ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 16:34ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 16:36ZKalshi mid39
Nov 5 16:40ZKalshi mid40
Nov 5 16:42ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 16:44ZKalshi mid45
Nov 5 16:46ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 16:50ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 16:52ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.023
Nov 5 17:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 17:02ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 17:04ZKalshi mid45
Nov 5 17:06ZKalshi mid48
Nov 5 17:08ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 17:10ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 17:16ZKalshi mid49
Nov 5 17:20ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 17:22ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 17:26ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 17:28ZKalshi mid53
Nov 5 17:32ZKalshi mid53
Nov 5 17:36ZKalshi mid54
Nov 5 17:46ZKalshi mid54
Nov 5 17:52ZKalshi mid53
Nov 5 18:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 5 18:04ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 18:06ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 18:08ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 18:12ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 18:16ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 18:26ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 18:30ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 18:34ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 18:38ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 18:40ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 19:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 19:02ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 19:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 5 19:06ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 19:08ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 19:10ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 19:24ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 19:26ZKalshi mid49
Nov 5 19:30ZKalshi mid49
Nov 5 19:32ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 19:34ZKalshi mid51
Nov 5 19:36ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 19:38ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 19:56ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 20:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 20:04ZKalshi mid52
Nov 5 20:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 5 20:10ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 20:14ZKalshi mid47
Nov 5 20:18ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 20:26ZKalshi mid46
Nov 5 20:28ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 20:40ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 21:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 5 21:02ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 21:06ZKalshi mid41
Nov 5 21:24ZKalshi mid36
Nov 5 21:26ZKalshi mid36
Nov 5 21:28ZKalshi mid36
Nov 5 21:38ZKalshi mid36
Nov 5 21:46ZKalshi mid36
Nov 5 21:48ZKalshi mid37
Nov 5 21:54ZKalshi mid36
Nov 5 22:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 5 22:02ZKalshi mid36
Nov 5 22:06ZKalshi mid38
Nov 5 22:08ZKalshi mid38
Nov 5 22:18ZKalshi mid39
Nov 5 22:26ZKalshi mid39
Nov 5 22:28ZKalshi mid40
Nov 5 22:32ZKalshi mid40
Nov 5 22:36ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 22:40ZKalshi mid42
Nov 5 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.053
Nov 5 23:00ZKalshi mid41

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 47% to 41%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 5 17:00ZNov 5 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 5 17:00ZNov 5 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-05T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-05T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-05T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-05T18Z
PBE23%53%
Market at capture47%41%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

66° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c66bfbb6-1740-4342-ad7d-a3041f0fd4e9
Compared with
6c3c2e31-190f-4096-8cb0-ded432c6de52
Captured
Nov 5 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 5 23:00Z
Market observation
41% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 6, 2026, is less than 67° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.