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New York City — photograph (Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 16, 2026: PBE moves “74° or below” up to 37% from 23%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 15 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

23%37%

74° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture73%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 16, 2026?

74° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE37%0 pts since publication
Kalshi87%+15 pts since publication
Gap−50

RESEARCH PBE Oct 15 23:01Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “74° or below” from 23% to 37% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 15 11:00Z → Oct 15 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 72% to 73%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 15 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 15 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 15 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 15 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “74° or below” from 23% to 37%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 71°F to 74°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 76°F to 75°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
GFS MOS forecast high71°F74°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high76°F75°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“74° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 15 14:02ZOct 15 15:31ZOct 15 17:00Z23%37%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 23% · Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 15 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.023
Oct 15 14:02ZKalshi mid72
Oct 15 14:04ZKalshi mid75
Oct 15 14:06ZKalshi mid72
Oct 15 14:12ZKalshi mid75
Oct 15 14:14ZKalshi mid79
Oct 15 14:16ZKalshi mid78
Oct 15 14:22ZKalshi mid79
Oct 15 14:24ZKalshi mid79
Oct 15 14:26ZKalshi mid77
Oct 15 14:34ZKalshi mid77
Oct 15 15:00ZKalshi mid77
Oct 15 15:02ZKalshi mid77
Oct 15 15:06ZKalshi mid77
Oct 15 15:30ZKalshi mid76
Oct 15 15:44ZKalshi mid77
Oct 15 15:48ZKalshi mid76
Oct 15 16:00ZKalshi mid73
Oct 15 16:02ZKalshi mid73
Oct 15 16:18ZKalshi mid74
Oct 15 16:34ZKalshi mid74
Oct 15 16:44ZKalshi mid73
Oct 15 16:56ZKalshi mid73
Oct 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Oct 15 17:00ZKalshi mid73

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 72% to 73%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 15 14:02ZOct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 15 11:00ZOct 15 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T12Z
PBE23%37%
Market at capture72%73%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

74° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
e139ec75-23b4-489a-9a93-49710a2dc3b9
Compared with
6a2f0751-1d83-4ae4-b77e-0092265cec28
Captured
Oct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 15 17:00Z
Market observation
73% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Oct 16, 2026, is less than 75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.