PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
New York City — photograph (Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “68° or below” up to 37% from 23%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 29. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 29 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

23%37%

68° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture55%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 30, 2026?

68° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE37%0 pts since publication
Kalshi65%+9 pts since publication
Gap−28

RESEARCH PBE Oct 29 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “68° or below” from 23% to 37% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 29 11:00Z → Oct 29 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 56% to 55%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 29 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 29 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 29 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 29 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “68° or below” from 23% to 37%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 67°F to 70°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 70°F to 69°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
GFS MOS forecast high67°F70°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high70°F69°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 29 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“68° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 29 14:02ZOct 29 15:31ZOct 29 17:00Z23%37%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 23% · Oct 29 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 29 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 29 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 29 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.023
Oct 29 14:02ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 14:04ZKalshi mid61
Oct 29 14:06ZKalshi mid61
Oct 29 14:08ZKalshi mid61
Oct 29 14:48ZKalshi mid63
Oct 29 14:52ZKalshi mid64
Oct 29 15:00ZKalshi mid61
Oct 29 15:02ZKalshi mid63
Oct 29 15:04ZKalshi mid63
Oct 29 15:08ZKalshi mid62
Oct 29 15:16ZKalshi mid63
Oct 29 15:26ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 15:28ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 15:30ZKalshi mid61
Oct 29 15:34ZKalshi mid61
Oct 29 15:36ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 15:38ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 15:46ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 15:48ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 16:00ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 16:02ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 16:04ZKalshi mid59
Oct 29 16:06ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 16:16ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 16:22ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 16:24ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 16:36ZKalshi mid53
Oct 29 16:44ZKalshi mid50
Oct 29 16:48ZKalshi mid52
Oct 29 16:50ZKalshi mid52
Oct 29 16:56ZKalshi mid53
Oct 29 16:58ZKalshi mid55
Oct 29 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Oct 29 17:00ZKalshi mid55

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 56% to 55%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 29 14:02ZOct 29 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 29 11:00ZOct 29 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T12Z
PBE23%37%
Market at capture56%55%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

68° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
f61a6938-a2be-4b5c-aa17-552f8ee42517
Compared with
b47165a6-f99e-47cd-8903-a6046a60ccb8
Captured
Oct 29 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 29 17:00Z
Market observation
55% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-30, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Oct 30, 2026, is less than 69° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.